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农旅融合对长江经济带“降碳、减污、扩绿、增长”协同发展的影响

The impact of agritourism integration on the synergistic development of carbon reduction, pollution control, green expansion, and economic growth in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

  • 摘要: 在全面推进乡村振兴和经济社会发展绿色转型的背景下,农旅融合能否兼顾生态环境改善与县域经济增长,具有重要的理论与现实意义。基于2007—2023年长江经济带744个县级行政单元的面板数据,本文将全国休闲农业与乡村旅游示范县认定视为一项准自然实验,采用多期双重差分法考察农旅融合对县域“降碳、减污、扩绿、增长”协同发展的影响。研究结果表明:1)示范县认定显著提升了县域“降碳、减污、扩绿、增长”协同发展水平,经过平行趋势检验与动态效应分析、安慰剂检验、匹配分析、异质性处理效应检验、双重机器学习因果检验等一系列检验后,研究结论仍然成立。2)机制检验表明,绿色技术创新、产业结构升级和环境规制强化是农旅融合促进县域协同发展的可能传导路径。3)异质性检验显示,政策的正向效应主要体现在非老工业基地城市所辖县域、非粮食主产区县域以及环境保护重点城市所辖县域。研究结论为评估农旅融合政策的生态经济综合效应提供了县域层面的经验证据,也为长江经济带立足地区产业基础、农业功能定位和环境治理条件,因地制宜推进农旅资源价值转化及降碳、减污、扩绿、增长协同治理提供了政策参考。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of advancing rural revitalization and the green transformation of economic and social development, whether agritourism integration can simultaneously improve the ecological environment and promote county-level economic growth is of considerable theoretical and practical significance. Using panel data for 744 county-level administrative units in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2007 to 2023, this study treats the designation of National Leisure Agriculture and Rural Tourism Demonstration Counties as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a staggered difference-in-differences approach to examine the impact of agritourism integration on the synergistic development of carbon reduction, pollution control, green expansion, and economic growth at the county level. The results show that: 1) designation as a demonstration county significantly enhances the synergistic development of carbon reduction, pollution control, green expansion, and economic growth. This finding remains robust after a series of tests, including parallel-trend and dynamic-effect analyses, placebo tests, matching analysis, heterogeneous treatment effect tests, and double machine learning-based causal inference. 2) Mechanism analysis suggests that green technological innovation, industrial structure upgrading, and strengthened environmental regulation are potential channels through which agritourism integration promotes county-level synergistic development. 3) Heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive policy effects are mainly concentrated in counties under non-old-industrial-base cities, counties outside major grain-producing areas, and counties under key environmental protection cities. These findings provide county-level empirical evidence for evaluating the integrated ecological and economic effects of agritourism integration policies. They also offer policy implications for the Yangtze River Economic Belt to promote the value realization of agricultural and tourism resources and the synergistic governance of carbon reduction, pollution control, green expansion, and economic growth in accordance with local industrial foundations, agricultural functional positioning, and environmental governance conditions.

     

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