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稳固还是开拓?中国农业生态韧性空间关联网络的演化机制研究

Consolidation or expansion? Evolutionary mechanisms of the spatial correlation network of agricultural ecological resilience in China

  • 摘要: 揭示农业生态韧性空间关联网络及其演化机制,是应对气候变化、提升区域协同适应能力的重要科学基础。基于“压力-状态-响应”框架,利用2014—2024年中国31个省份的面板数据,采用熵权法测度农业生态韧性,通过修正引力模型构建二值空间关联网络,并运用社会网络分析、时间指数随机图模型与可分离时间指数随机图模型,刻画网络结构,考察关联形成与持续的影响因素。研究发现:1)网络空间格局呈阶段性变化,主要整体结构指标未呈现显著单调趋势;2)网络密度波动变化,期末高于期初,整体连通程度增加,等级度年际起伏较明显,网络核心由部分西部省份扩展至中西部多个省份,部分边缘省份联系仍较薄弱;3)板块内部统计联系占主导,跨板块联系增加,成员构成发生重组;4)互惠性与传递闭合性同关联形成及持续均呈正向关系,共享伙伴效应为负,网络状态具有正向时间依赖;5)基准设定下,气候适应能力、极端低温与地理邻接呈“双重驱动型”特征,农业保险呈“稳固型”特征,极端强降水呈“形成抑制型”特征。部分结果对二值化阈值敏感,上述功能角色分类仅为探索性统计概括,不构成因果证据。

     

    Abstract: Revealing the spatial correlation network of agricultural ecological resilience and its evolutionary mechanisms provides an important scientific basis for addressing climate change and enhancing regional capacity for coordinated adaptation. Based on the pressure-state-response framework and panel data from 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2014 to 2024, this study measures agricultural ecological resilience using the entropy weight method and constructs a binary spatial correlation network using a modified gravity model. Social network analysis, the temporal exponential random graph model, and the separable temporal exponential random graph model are employed to characterize network structure and examine the factors influencing the formation and persistence of network ties. The results show that: 1) The spatial pattern of the network changes in distinct stages, while the major overall structural indicators exhibit no significant monotonic trends. 2) Network density fluctuates over time and is higher at the end of the study period than at the beginning. Overall connectivity increases, while the network's hierarchical structure exhibits considerable interannual variation. The network core expands from several western provinces to multiple provinces in central and western China, although some peripheral provinces remain weakly connected. 3) Within-block ties predominate, while cross-block ties increase and block membership is reorganized. 4) Reciprocity and transitive closure are positively associated with both tie formation and persistence, whereas the shared partner effect is negative. The network also exhibits positive temporal dependence. 5) Under the baseline specification, climate adaptation capacity, extreme low temperatures, and geographical adjacency exhibit a dual-driving pattern, agricultural insurance exhibits a stabilizing pattern, and extreme heavy precipitation exhibits a tie formation inhibition pattern. Some results are sensitive to the binarization threshold. The classification of these functional roles is an exploratory statistical summary and does not constitute causal evidence.

     

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