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数字乡村建设对农业能源韧性的影响研究

Research on the impact of digital rural construction on agricultural energy resilience

  • 摘要: 提升农业能源韧性是保障国家粮食与能源安全、推动农业绿色低碳转型的重要基础。本文基于2011—2024年中国30个省份的面板数据,从抵抗防御、恢复适应和改善再生三个维度构建农业能源韧性评价指标体系,运用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型和门槛模型,考察数字乡村建设对农业能源韧性的影响及其作用机制,并开展内生性、稳健性和区域异质性检验。研究发现:数字乡村建设能够显著提升农业能源韧性,对其三个维度均具有正向影响,经过工具变量估计和多种稳健性检验后,基本结论未发生实质性变化;农业社会化服务在数字乡村建设影响农业能源韧性的过程中发挥部分中介作用;数字乡村建设的影响存在单一门槛特征,门槛以上区间的促进作用相对更强;分组回归显示,其正向影响在粮食主产区和主销区显著,而在产销平衡区未通过显著性检验。基于上述结论,应进一步夯实农村数字基础设施,促进数字技术与农业社会化服务深度融合,并结合不同区域的农业生产条件实施差异化建设策略,以持续提升农业能源韧性。

     

    Abstract: Improving agricultural energy resilience is an important foundation for ensuring national food and energy security and promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2024, an evaluation index system for agricultural energy resilience was constructed from three dimensions: resistance and defense, recovery and adaptation, and improvement and regeneration. A two-way fixed effects model, mediation effect model, and threshold model were employed to examine the impact of digital rural development on agricultural energy resilience and its underlying mechanisms, with endogeneity, robustness, and regional heterogeneity tests also conducted. The results show that digital rural development significantly improves agricultural energy resilience and has positive effects on all three dimensions. The basic findings remain substantively unchanged after instrumental variable estimation and a series of robustness tests. Agricultural socialized services play a partial mediating role in the effect of digital rural development on agricultural energy resilience. The impact of digital rural development exhibits a single-threshold effect, with a stronger positive effect above the threshold. The subgroup regression results show that the positive effect is significant in the main grain-producing and main grain-consuming regions, but is not statistically significant in the grain production and consumption balanced regions. Based on these findings, efforts should be made to further strengthen rural digital infrastructure, promote the deep integration of digital technologies with agricultural socialized services, and implement differentiated development strategies according to agricultural production conditions in different regions, thereby continuously enhancing agricultural energy resilience.

     

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