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黑土地保护利用试点项目对农户收入的影响机制及空间效应

The impact mechanisms and spatial effects of the Black Soil Protection and Pilot Program on farmers' income

  • 摘要: 基于东北黑土区105个县2008—2023年面板数据,运用双重差分法、中介效应模型和空间杜宾模型,揭示黑土地保护利用试点项目实施对农户收入的影响机制及空间溢出效应。结果表明:1)时间上,试点区域农户收入增速明显高于非试点区域;空间上,呈现吉林>黑龙江>辽宁>内蒙古“东四盟”的空间分布格局。2)黑土地保护利用试点项目对提升农户收入具有显著的促进作用。3)黑土地保护利用试点项目对农户收入的影响主要通过提升粮食产能、优化产业结构和提高金融市场水平三条路径实现,且金融市场水平的中介效应明显高于产业结构优化和粮食产能提升。4)黑土地保护利用试点项目对农户收入的空间溢出效应呈示范扩散、区域联动和市场溢价的特征,对本地区与邻近地区的农户收入均具有显著的促进作用。基于此,未来应稳步提升黑土地保护利用试点项目的“增收”效应,重视提升粮食产能、优化产业结构和提高金融市场化的作用,实现东北黑土区农户收入区域联动效应。

     

    Abstract: Based on panel data from 105 counties in the Northeast Black Soil Region from 2008 to 2023, this study employs the difference-in-differences method, the mediating effect model and the spatial Durbin model to investigate the impact mechanisms and spatial spillover effects of the implementation of the Black Soil Protection and Utilization Pilot Program on rural household income. The results show that: 1) Temporally, the growth rate of farmers' income in pilot areas is significantly higher than that in non-pilot areas. Spatially, the overall distribution pattern presents Jilin > Heilongjiang > Liaoning > the Four Eastern Leagues of Inner Mongolia; 2) The pilot program for the protection and utilization of black soil plays a significant positive role in increasing farmers’ income. The impact of the black soil protection and utilization pilot program on farmers' income is mainly realized through three paths: improving grain production capacity, optimizing industrial structure, and raising the level of financial marketization. Meanwhile, the mediating effect of financial marketization is markedly stronger than that of industrial structure optimization and grain production capacity improvement; and 3) The spatial spillover effects of the black soil protection and utilization pilot program on farmers' income are characterized by demonstration and diffusion, regional linkage and market premium, which exerts a prominent promoting effect on farmers' income in both local and adjacent areas. On this basis, to realize the regional linkage effect of farmers' income growth in the black soil region of Northeast China, this paper provides the following suggestions: to steadily enhance the income-increasing effect of the black soil protection and utilization pilot program in the future, to attach importance to boosting grain production capacity, and to optimize industrial structure and advancing financial marketization.

     

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