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粮食功能区视角下农业农村高质量发展水平测度及空间分异基于LDA与扎根理论的混合研究

Measurement and spatial differentiation of high-quality agricultural and rural development from the perspective of grain functional zones: A mixed method study using LDA and grounded theory

  • 摘要: 科学评估农业农村高质量发展水平是地方政府把握区域发展现状、破解发展不平衡、加快建设农业强国的现实需求。本文基于新发展理念,综合运用LDA与扎根理论挖掘2019—2025年的相关政策文本,提炼创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五个主轴范畴与协同推进核心范畴,据此构建评价指标体系。采用熵权-TOPSIS法、Dagum基尼系数及核密度估计法,测度2011—2023年中国30个省份的农业农村高质量发展水平,分析其动态演进与空间差异。结果表明:全国农业农村高质量发展整体水平稳步提升,形成粮食主销区持续领先、产销平衡区加快追赶、主产区稳步提升的格局;维度分化明显,主销区创新与开放优势突出,主产区协调与绿色表现较好,产销平衡区创新驱动成效显著;全国分布整体右移,主销区内部异质性较强,主产区内部差异持续收敛,平衡区呈由低位向中等水平整体跃升的追赶态势,但后期内部差距有所扩大;总体空间差异趋于收敛,区域间差异是主要来源,但区域内差异贡献率波动上升。根据研究结论,提出实施梯度差异化发展、统筹基础保障与创新突破、深化区域协同联动机制等政策建议。

     

    Abstract: Scientifically assessing the level of high-quality agricultural and rural development is essential for local governments to understand regional development conditions, address development disparities, and accelerate China’s transformation into an agricultural powerhouse. Guided by the new development philosophy, this study integrates latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) and grounded theory to analyze policy documents published between 2019 and 2025. Five axial categories, including innovation, coordination, green development, openness, and sharing, are identified, with coordinated advancement emerging as the core category. Based on these findings, an evaluation index system is developed. The entropy-weighted TOPSIS method, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and kernel density estimation are employed to evaluate the development levels of 30 provincial-level regions in China from 2011 to 2023 and to examine their dynamic evolution and spatial differentiation. The results indicate that the national average improved steadily, forming a pattern in which major grain-consuming areas maintained their leading position, grain production–marketing balance areas rapidly narrowed the gap, and major grain-producing areas improve steadily. Distinct differences are observed across development dimensions. Major grain-consuming areas demonstrate clear advantages in innovation and openness, while major grain-producing areas perform relatively well in coordination and green development. Grain production–marketing balance areas have achieved remarkable progress in innovation-driven development. The national distribution progressively shifts to the right, indicating an overall improvement in development levels. Major grain-consuming areas display substantial internal heterogeneity, disparities within major grain-producing areas continue to narrow. In contrast, grain production–marketing balance areas generally transition from relatively low to medium development levels, despite widening internal disparities in the later period. Overall spatial disparities show a converging trend. Interregional disparities remain the dominant source of overall inequality, while the contribution of intraregional disparities increases over time with some fluctuations. Based on these findings, this study proposes policy recommendations, including implementing gradient-differentiated development strategies, coordinating basic support with innovative breakthroughs, and deepening regional collaborative mechanisms.

     

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