高级检索

乡村数字化对农村外出劳动力回流的影响及其机制研究

Impact of rural digitalization on the return migration of rural migrant workers: evidence on the underlying mechanisms

  • 摘要: 农村劳动力流动既关系到农民工个体发展与福利改善,也是影响城乡结构调整与经济社会转型的重要议题。基于中国乡村振兴综合调查数据(CRRS)与北京大学新农村发展研究院测算的县域数字乡村指数,本文系统考察乡村数字化对农村外出劳动力回流的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:1)乡村数字化发展显著提高农村外出劳动力回流概率,该效应主要来源于乡村数字基础设施、经济数字化与治理数字化的共同推动,而生活数字化的作用尚未充分显现。2)调节效应结果表明,乡村数字化的回流效应具有明显条件性特征,其作用强度受到城乡数字化差距的显著影响,当数字鸿沟较小时其促进作用更强。3)机制分析表明,乡村数字化主要通过提升预期收入、改善信息可及性以及提高生活满意度三条路径促进农村外出劳动力回流。4)异质性分析发现,该效应存在显著分化特征,在收入水平较低地区以及流入城市等级较低、流动距离较近、教育水平较低,并主要从事第一与第三产业的农村外出劳动力中表现更为显著。

     

    Abstract: Rural labor mobility is closely related not only to the individual development and welfare improvement of migrant workers but also to urban-rural restructuring and socioeconomic transformation. Based on data from the China Rural Revitalization Survey (CRRS) and the county-level Digital Village Index developed by the New Rural Development Institute of Peking University, this study systematically examines the impact of rural digitalization on the return migration of rural migrant workers and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that: 1) Rural digitalization significantly increases the probability of return migration among rural migrant workers. This effect is mainly driven by improvements in rural digital infrastructure, economic digitalization, and digital governance, whereas the effect of digitalized public services and daily life has not yet become evident. 2) The moderating analysis indicates that the return-migration effect of rural digitalization is conditional and is significantly affected by the urban-rural digital divide. Specifically, the promoting effect is stronger when the digital divide is smaller. 3) Mechanism analysis shows that rural digitalization promotes return migration primarily by increasing expected income, improving information accessibility, and enhancing life satisfaction. 4) Heterogeneity analysis further reveals that the effect is more pronounced in lower-income regions and among rural migrant workers who migrate to lower-tier cities, have shorter migration distances, possess lower educational attainment, and are employed mainly in the primary and tertiary industries.

     

/

返回文章
返回