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粮食主产区耕地利用生产与生态效率的分异特征及影响因素基于农业新质生产力视角

Differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of cultivated land use production and ecological efficiency in major grain-producing areas: from the perspective of agricultural new quality productivity

  • 摘要: 耕地是保障粮食安全与生态安全的关键载体。在资源环境约束趋紧和稳产保供目标强化的背景下,统筹提升耕地利用生产效率(以下简称生产效率)和耕地利用生态效率(以下简称生态效率)已成为农业高质量发展的重要议题。本文以2012—2023年13个粮食主产省为研究对象,基于农业新质生产力理论框架,构建生产效率与生态效率测度体系,综合运用随机前沿分析、分数响应模型和岭回归等方法,分析两类效率的时空分异特征及其影响因素的短期-长期效应差异。研究发现:1)生产效率与生态效率均持续上升,前者整体水平较高但提升较缓,后者提升更为显著,两者差距逐步缩小并呈收敛趋势;粮食主产区可划分为双向优势型、单向优势型、协同提升型和双向滞后型四类;2)科技创新、要素重组和产业升级三条路径下,不同影响因素对两类效率的作用存在明显差异。其中,组织化管理程度始终发挥稳定促进作用;农业科技化水平、规模化经营程度和产业链延伸能力总体呈现“短期偏弱或抑制-长期促进”的特征;农业数字化水平则对生产效率持续表现为抑制作用,对生态效率呈现“短期抑制-长期促进”的特征。由此,应围绕科技创新、要素重组和产业升级三条路径统筹施策,并结合不同区域类型实施分类引导,以促进粮食安全与生态安全协同提升。

     

    Abstract: Cultivated land is a key carrier for ensuring food security and ecological security. Under the tightening constraints of resources and the environment and the strengthened goal of stabilizing production and ensuring supply, the coordinated improvement of cultivated land use production efficiency (hereinafter referred to as production efficiency) and cultivated land use ecological efficiency (hereinafter referred to as ecological efficiency) has become an important issue in high-quality agricultural development. Taking 13 major grain-producing provinces from 2012 to 2023 as the research objects, this study, based on the theoretical framework of agricultural new quality productivity, constructs measurement systems for production efficiency and ecological efficiency, and comprehensively applies stochastic frontier analysis, the fractional response model, and ridge regression to examine the differentiation characteristics of the two types of efficiency and the differences in the short-term and long-term effects of influencing factors. The results show that: 1) production efficiency and ecological efficiency both exhibited continuous improvement. The former remained at a relatively higher overall level but increased more slowly, whereas the latter improved more markedly. The gap between the two gradually narrowed and showed a convergence trend. The major grain-producing regions can be classified into four types: dual-advantage type, single-advantage type, coordinated-improvement type, and dual-lagging type. 2) Along the three pathways of technological innovation, factor reorganization, and industrial upgrading, different influencing factors exert significantly different effects on the two types of efficiency. Among them, the degree of organizational management consistently plays a stable promoting role. The agricultural technological level, the degree of scale management, and the industrial chain extension capacity generally exhibit a pattern of weak or inhibitory short-term effects but promoting long-term effects. By contrast, the agricultural digitalization level continuously exerts an inhibitory effect on production efficiency, while showing a pattern of short-term inhibition and long-term promotion for ecological efficiency. Accordingly, policy measures should be coordinated around the three pathways of technological innovation, factor reorganization, and industrial upgrading, and differentiated guidance should be implemented according to different regional types so as to promote the coordinated improvement of food security and ecological security.

     

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