Abstract:
Cultivated land is a key carrier for ensuring food security and ecological security. Under the tightening constraints of resources and the environment and the strengthened goal of stabilizing production and ensuring supply, the coordinated improvement of cultivated land use production efficiency (hereinafter referred to as production efficiency) and cultivated land use ecological efficiency (hereinafter referred to as ecological efficiency) has become an important issue in high-quality agricultural development. Taking 13 major grain-producing provinces from 2012 to 2023 as the research objects, this study, based on the theoretical framework of agricultural new quality productivity, constructs measurement systems for production efficiency and ecological efficiency, and comprehensively applies stochastic frontier analysis, the fractional response model, and ridge regression to examine the differentiation characteristics of the two types of efficiency and the differences in the short-term and long-term effects of influencing factors. The results show that: 1) production efficiency and ecological efficiency both exhibited continuous improvement. The former remained at a relatively higher overall level but increased more slowly, whereas the latter improved more markedly. The gap between the two gradually narrowed and showed a convergence trend. The major grain-producing regions can be classified into four types: dual-advantage type, single-advantage type, coordinated-improvement type, and dual-lagging type. 2) Along the three pathways of technological innovation, factor reorganization, and industrial upgrading, different influencing factors exert significantly different effects on the two types of efficiency. Among them, the degree of organizational management consistently plays a stable promoting role. The agricultural technological level, the degree of scale management, and the industrial chain extension capacity generally exhibit a pattern of weak or inhibitory short-term effects but promoting long-term effects. By contrast, the agricultural digitalization level continuously exerts an inhibitory effect on production efficiency, while showing a pattern of short-term inhibition and long-term promotion for ecological efficiency. Accordingly, policy measures should be coordinated around the three pathways of technological innovation, factor reorganization, and industrial upgrading, and differentiated guidance should be implemented according to different regional types so as to promote the coordinated improvement of food security and ecological security.