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何以聚粮:“五良”融合对粮食单产的影响研究

How to increase grain yield: a study on the impact of “five excellences” integration on grain yield per unit area

  • 摘要: 在耕地规模约束加剧、粮食增产压力加大的背景下,“五良”融合是提高粮食单产的关键所在,也是实现新一轮千亿斤粮食产能提升的核心突破口。本文基于2009—2023年中国30个省级面板数据,运用双向固定效应模型,通过实证检验“五良”融合如何影响粮食单产。研究发现:1)“五良”融合能显著提高粮食单产,增产成效稳定可靠。2)“五良”融合通过推动农业技术进步以及提高农业社会化服务水平来提高粮食单产。3)农业经营规模在“五良”融合对粮食单产的影响中发挥正向调节作用,经营规模越大,“五良”融合的增产优势越突出。4)异质性分析表明,“五良”融合对粮食主产区以及低起伏度地区的粮食单产提升作用更显著。基于此,各地应结合资源禀赋分区域推进“五良”融合发展,重点培育规模化农业经营主体,同时不断健全农业技术成果转化体系,扩大农业社会化服务覆盖面,多措并举充分释放要素协同增效潜力。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of increasing constrained arable land resources and mounting pressure to increase grain production, the integration of the “five excellences” is essential for improving grain yield per unit area and constitutes a key means of implementing the new initiative to increase grain production by 100 billion Jin (50 million metric tons). Based on a panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2009 to 2023, this study employs a two-way fixed effects model to empirically examine the impact of “five excellences” integration on grain yield per unit area. Results show that: 1) the integration of the “five excellences” significantly increases grain yield per unit area, and the estimated yield gains are robust and reliable; 2) it increases grain yield by advancing agricultural technology and improving agricultural socialized services; 3) the scale of agricultural operations positively moderates the yield-enhancing effect of this integration, with larger-scale operations generating greater yield benefits; and 4) heterogeneity analysis indicates that yield-enhancing effect is more pronounced in major grain-producing regions and areas with relatively low terrain relief. Based on these findings, local governments should promote the integrated development of the “five excellences” in accordance with local resource endowments and place particular emphasis on fostering large-scale agricultural operators. They should also continuously improve mechanisms for translating agricultural scientific and technological achievements into practical applications, expand the coverage of agricultural socialized services, and adopt coordinated measures to fully unlock synergistic efficiency gains among production factors.

     

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