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农村产业融合发展示范园建设对农民增收影响机制研究

Impact mechanisms of national demonstration parks for the integrated development of rural industries on farmers’ income growth

  • 摘要: 农村产业融合发展是推动乡村产业振兴、促进农民持续增收的重要路径。本文基于2013—2023年我国县级面板数据,将国家农村产业融合发展示范园建设视为一项准自然实验,采用多期双重差分模型考察其对农民收入水平的影响及作用机制。研究发现:第一,农村产业融合发展示范园建设能够显著提升农民收入水平,该结论在经过平行趋势检验、安慰剂检验、异质性处理效应检验、工具变量法和双重机器学习再检验后依然稳健。第二,机制分析表明,示范园建设主要通过提升农业生产效率、延伸农业产业链和促进农村电商产业链发展推动农民增收。第三,异质性分析表明,示范园建设的增收效应在工业主导型县域更为显著,且高农业特色资源禀赋能够进一步强化政策的增收效果。基于此,建议后续示范园建设应结合县域产业结构和农业特色资源禀赋分类推进,进一步优化农业内部分工,完善产业链配套体系,提升农村电商发展水平,从而更充分释放农村产业融合的增收效应。

     

    Abstract: The integrated development of rural industries is an important pathway for promoting rural industrial revitalization and sustaining farmers’ income growth. Based on county-level panel data from China for the period 2013-2023, this study treats the establishment of national demonstration parks for the integrated development of rural industries as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a multi-period difference-in-differences model to examine its effects on farmers’ income and the underlying mechanisms. The results show that, first, the establishment of demonstration parks significantly increases farmers’ income, and this finding remains robust after parallel trend tests, placebo tests, heterogeneous treatment effect tests, instrumental variable estimation, and re-examination using double machine learning. Second, the mechanism analysis shows that demonstration park construction promotes farmers’ income growth mainly by improving agricultural production efficiency, extending the agricultural industrial chain, and facilitating the development of rural e-commerce industrial chains. Third, the heterogeneity analysis indicates that the income-enhancing effect of demonstration park construction is more pronounced in industry-oriented counties, and that a higher endowment of distinctive agricultural resources further strengthens the income-enhancing policy effect. Accordingly, future demonstration park construction should be advanced in a differentiated manner according to county-level industrial structures and distinctive agricultural resource endowments. Efforts should also be made to further optimize the internal division of labor in agriculture, improve supporting systems for industrial chains, and enhance the development of rural e-commerce, so as to more fully release the income-enhancing effect of the integrated development of rural industries.

     

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