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空间视域下城乡融合质量评价、时空分异及驱动因素研究

Research on the quality evaluation, spatial and temporal differentiation, and driving factors of urban-rural integration from a spatial perspective

  • 摘要: 提升城乡融合质量是推进乡村全面振兴与实现中国式现代化的内在要求。本文基于“要素联通-等值发展-共生共荣”三维框架构建评价体系,以2008—2023年中国30个省份(不包括港澳台和西藏)为研究单元,综合运用β收敛模型、NICH指数与Hurst指数叠加法,深度解析城乡融合质量的时空演进格局、趋同特征及未来演化态势,并借助障碍度模型与地理探测器探析其制约瓶颈与驱动机理。研究发现:1)研究期内,中国城乡融合质量总体呈稳步提升态势,并表现出显著的收敛特征,区域演进遵循“东部领跑、中部追赶、西部滞后”的梯度规律;2)城乡融合质量存在显著的空间非均衡性,整体呈现“东高西低、南高北低”的分布格局,表现出由西向东梯度递增、东部圈层集聚的分异特征;3)未来城乡融合质量总体保持上行趋势,西部地区增长动能强劲,区域差距有望进一步收敛,但南北分化风险依然存在,且青海、广西与辽宁等地面临一定的回落压力;4)城乡融合质量受内部瓶颈与外部动力双重驱动。其中,人力资本匮乏、交通与网络设施联通不畅是核心障碍因子;科研投入、政府干预及多因子协同耦合是驱动城乡融合质量空间格局演变的关键力量。

     

    Abstract: Enhancing the quality of urban-rural integration is an intrinsic requirement for advancing comprehensive rural revitalization and achieving Chinese modernization. Based on a three-dimensional framework of factor connectivity, equivalent development, and symbiotic prosperity, this study constructs an evaluation index system. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2023, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Xizang, it applies the β convergence model, the superposition method of the NICH index and the Hurst index, as well as the obstacle degree model and the geographic detector, to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns, convergence characteristics, future development trends, and the constraint mechanisms and driving forces of urban-rural integration quality. The results show that: 1) During the study period, the quality of urban-rural integration in China exhibited a steady upward trend and significant convergence characteristics, with a regional evolution pattern characterized by the East leading, the Central region catching up, and the West lagging behind. 2) The quality of urban-rural integration shows significant spatial imbalance, presenting an overall pattern of higher levels in the east than in the west and higher levels in the south than in the north, with a gradient increase from west to east and a clustering tendency in the eastern regions. 3) In the future, the overall quality of urban-rural integration is expected to maintain an upward trend. The western region demonstrates strong growth momentum, and regional disparities are likely to further converge. However, the risk of north-south divergence remains, and provinces such as Qinghai, Guangxi, and Liaoning face potential downward pressure. 4) The quality of urban-rural integration is jointly driven by internal constraints and external forces. Among these, insufficient human capital and inadequate connectivity in transportation and network infrastructure constitute the core obstacle factors, while research investment, government intervention, and the synergistic coupling of multiple factors are the key driving forces shaping the spatial evolution of urban-rural integration quality.

     

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