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长江流域季节性干旱演变及主要粮食产量响应特征

Seasonal drought evolution and the response characteristics of the yield of major grain crops in the Yangtze River Basin

  • 摘要: 为探究长江流域季节性干旱的时空演变特征及其对主要粮食作物产量的影响,本研究基于2008—2022年长江流域89个气象站点的气象数据和主要作物产量资料,计算标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI)和作物产量残差(SYRS),并结合Sen斜率估计和Mann-Kendall检验方法,分析干旱演变与水稻、玉米、豆类产量之间的响应关系。结果显示:尽管长江流域在年际尺度上整体呈湿润趋势,但夏、秋两季干旱事件仍频繁发生,且干旱程度呈逐渐加重趋势,其中秋季重旱事件发生频率达到5.5%。雅砻江流域及洞庭湖流域干旱尤为明显,对水稻(r=0.674,P<0.01)、玉米(r=0.726,P<0.01)和豆类(r=0.690,P<0.01)产量产生显著影响。此外,各作物单产的区域差异在很大程度上受季节性干旱影响。研究建议通过优化灌溉管理和调整作物种植结构,以提升农业系统的抗旱能力和作物产量稳定性,从而保障区域粮食生产安全。本研究为长江流域农业适应性管理及气候变化应对策略提供了科学依据。

     

    Abstract: This study examined the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of seasonal drought in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and their effects on the yields of major grain crops. In this study, we utilized the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and standardized yield residuals series (SYRS), in conjunction with Sen’s slope estimation and the Mann-Kendall test, based on data from 89 meteorological stations and yields from statistical yearbooks in the YRB from 2008 to 2022, in order to analyze the correlation between the spatiotemporal evolution of drought and the yields of rice, maize, and legume. The results indicated that while the YRB experienced an overall trend toward wetter conditions, drought events became more frequent during summer and autumn, with the drought severity showing a gradual intensification trend, among which severe drought occurred at a frequency of 5.5% in autumn. Drought impacts were particularly pronounced in the Yalong River Basin and Dongting Lake Basin, significantly affecting rice (r=0.674, P<0.01), maize (r=0.726, P<0.01), and legume (r=0.690, P<0.01) yields within the basin. Moreover, regional variations in crop yields were significantly influenced by seasonal droughts. The study recommends that it is imperative to enhance the drought resilience of agricultural systems by optimising irrigation strategies and adjusting crop patterns, thereby improving crop growth stability under arid conditions to safeguard agricultural production security. This research provides critical scientific evidence for adaptive agricultural management and climate change response strategies in the YRB.

     

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