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湖南县域耕地利用可持续集约水平时空分异及其驱动机制

The spatiotemporal differentiation and the driving mechanisms of sustainable intensification of cropland use in Hunan Province’s counties

  • 摘要: 耕地利用可持续集约化发展是缓解粮食安全问题、减轻环境压力的可行模式。本研究充分考虑物质投入、期望产出和非期望产出,构建耕地利用可持续集约化评价体系,综合超效率SBM模型、Dagum基尼系数、GTWR方法等,对2000—2021年湖南省86个县市耕地利用可持续集约水平的时空特征、区域差异、模式及优化发展策略进行研究。结果显示:时序上,2000—2021年湖南县域耕地利用可持续集约水平呈阶段性上升趋势,主要经历了“下降-调整-上升”的演变阶段。空间上,高值区表现为“东北、西南”两端向“中间扩散”特征,中值区的集聚特征显著且具有“锁定效应”,低值区集中分布于西部。区域差异上,整体不均衡性呈下降趋势,受区域间差异影响较大,区域内差异较小且稳定,呈现一定“均衡稳态效应”。驱动机制上,由自然、经济、人口和政策等因素驱动,且各因素的驱动作用存在时空异质性,形成8种典型驱动模式,需要根据各地“因地制宜、因时制宜”制定适宜耕地利用可持续集约发展的差异化路径。相关结论以期为各地推进耕地可持续集约发展、提高农业现代化水平提供参考借鉴。

     

    Abstract: Sustainable intensification of cropland use represents a viable approach to mitigating food security challenges and alleviating environmental pressures. By comprehensively examining material inputs, desirable outputs, and undesirable outputs, this paper constructed an evaluation framework for the sustainable intensification of cropland use. In addition, by integrating the Super-SBM model, Dagum Gini coefficient, and the GTWR method, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution, regional disparities, typological patterns, and optimization strategies of sustainable intensification levels across 86 counties in Hunan Province from 2000 to 2021. The results indicate that temporally, the level of sustainable intensification of cropland in Hunan’s counties showed a phased upward trend, characterized by an evolutionary process of “decline-adjustment-rise”. Spatially, high-value areas exhibited a diffusion pattern from the northeastern and southwestern regions toward the central area, medium-value areas demonstrated significant agglomeration with a “lock-in effect”, and low-value areas were concentrated in the western part. In terms of regional disparity, overall inequality displayed a declining trend, largely driven by inter-regional differences, while intra-regional differences remained relatively small and stable, indicating a “balanced steady-state effect”. The driving mechanisms were influenced by natural, economic, demographic, and policy factors, with spatiotemporal heterogeneity in the effects of these drivers. Eight typical driving patterns were identified, suggesting that region-specific and time-aware differentiated pathways should be formulated to promote sustainable intensification of cropland use. The findings aim to provide insights for facilitating sustainable agricultural intensification and enhancing agricultural modernization in various regions.

     

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