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农地经营规模对农业高质量发展的影响效应基于宏观数据的实证检验

The impacts of farmland operating scale on high-quality agricultural development: an empirical test based on macroeconomic data

  • 摘要: 农业规模化发展战略是我国农业实现高质量发展的重要手段。本文基于2011—2022年31个省份(不包含港澳台)的面板数据,运用熵权法、双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型和空间计量模型,探究我国农地经营规模对农业高质量发展的影响效应、作用机理和空间效应。研究结果表明:1)农地经营规模与农业高质量发展呈“倒U型”关系,拐点为2.83 hm2/户。2)农地经营规模与东部和西部农业高质量发展呈“倒U型”关系,东部拐点小于西部拐点,与中部呈线性正相关,与粮食和非粮食主产区均呈“倒U型”关系,粮食主产区拐点小于非粮食主产区拐点,与农业绿色发展和产业效益呈“倒U型”关系,与生产效率呈线性正相关。3)农地经营规模的扩大会持续推动农业机械化水平的提升进而对农业高质量发展产生影响,对农业资源配置效率产生“倒U型”影响进而影响农业高质量发展。4)农地经营规模对邻近地区的农业高质量发展水平也会产生“倒U型”的空间溢出效应。基于此,本文从探索适合中国的“小规模+精细化”农业发展模式;制定差异化农业发展路线,摆脱“一刀切”思维;持续引导正向溢出效应,构建区域协同治理机制三个方面为农业高质量发展提出建议。

     

    Abstract: The strategy of agricultural scale expansion serves as a crucial means for achieving high-quality development in China’s agriculture. Based on panel data from 31 provinces from 2011 to 2022, this study employs entropy weighting, two-way fixed-effects models, mediation effect models, and spatial effects of econometric models to examine the impacts, underlying mechanisms, and spatial effects of farmland management scale on high-quality agricultural development in China. Results show that: 1) farmland management scale exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with high-quality agricultural development, with an inflection point at 2.83 hectares per household; 2) farmland management scale shows an inverted U-shaped relationship with high-quality agricultural development in both the eastern and western regions, with the inflection point in the eastern region being smaller than that in the western region, while a linear positive relationship is observed in the central region. An inverted U-shaped relationship is also found in both grain-producing and non-grain-producing regions, with the inflection point in grain-producing regions being smaller than that in non-grain-producing regions. Moreover, farmland management scale exhibits an inverted U-shaped relationship with agricultural green development and industrial efficiency, while maintaining a linear positive relationship with production efficiency; 3) the expansion of farmland management scale promotes agricultural mechanization, thereby influencing high-quality agricultural development. It also exerts an inverted U-shaped effect on agricultural resource allocation efficiency, which in turn affects high-quality agricultural development; and 4) farmland management scale generates an inverted U-shaped spatial spillover effect on the high-quality agricultural development level of high-quality agricultural development in neighboring regions. Based on these findings, this paper proposes policy recommendations for promoting high-quality agricultural development from three perspectives: exploring a “small-scale + precision” agricultural development model suited for China, formulating differentiated agricultural development pathways, and continuously guiding positive spillover effects while establishing regional collaborative governance mechanisms.

     

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