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广东省生态系统服务价值时空演变及驱动机制研究

Spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of ecosystem service value in Guangdong Province

  • 摘要: 为应对快速城镇化背景下广东省生态系统服务功能退化的风险,本文基于2001—2021年土地利用变化数据,采用当量因子法评估广东省生态系统服务价值(ESV)的时空演变特征,并利用地理探测器分析其空间分异的驱动因素。研究结果表明:1)研究期内,建设用地显著扩张,林地面积略有增加,而耕地、水域和草地均不同程度减少,整体土地利用动态度呈下降趋势,不同土地类型之间发生了大规模转移。2)广东省ESV总量由2001年的约1 0385.12亿元下降至2021年的约9816.47亿元,减少约568.65亿元,其中林地对ESV变化的贡献最大,是维持区域生态平衡的关键要素;空间分布上表现为“北高南低”。3)ESV空间分异受自然环境与社会经济因素的复合作用影响,其中人为影响综合指数(HAI)贡献率最高,坡度、高程、NDVI、气温、人口密度、道路密度及GDP亦为重要因子;同时,道路密度与坡度的交互作用对ESV的影响最为显著。研究结果可为提升区域生态环境质量、构建生态安全格局及推动人地关系协调发展提供定量依据和科学支撑。

     

    Abstract: In response to the risk of ecosystem service function degradation under the background of rapid urbanization in Guangdong Province, this study evaluates the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem service value (ESV) from 2001 to 2021 based on land-use change data using the equivalent factor method, and further analyzes the driving factors of its spatial differentiation with the geographic detector model. The results show that: 1) during the study period, construction land expanded significantly, forestland slightly increased, while cropland, water bodies, and grassland all declined to varying degrees. Overall, the land-use dynamic degree showed a downward trend, accompanied by large-scale transfers among different land-use types. 2) The total ESV in Guangdong decreased from approximately 1038.51 billion yuan in 2001 to about 981.65 billion yuan in 2021, a reduction of around 56.87 billion yuan. Among all land-use types, forestland contributed the most to the ESV change and played a key role in maintaining regional ecological balance. Spatially, ESV presented a “high in the north, low in the south” pattern. 3) The spatial differentiation of ESV was jointly influenced by natural and socio-economic factors, among which the Human Activity Index (HAI) had the highest explanatory power. Slope, elevation, NDVI, temperature, population density, road density, and GDP were also important factors, while the interaction between road density and slope exerted the most significant influence on ESV. The findings provide quantitative evidence and scientific support for improving regional ecological environment quality, constructing an ecological security pattern, and promoting the coordinated development of human–environment relationships.

     

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