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品牌赋能耕地保护:农产品地理标志认证是否能促进耕地总量动态平衡?

Brand empowerment for farmland protection: does geographical indication certification promote the dynamic balance of cultivated land?

  • 摘要: 2025年“中央一号”文件强调,要严格耕地总量管控,确保年度耕地总量动态平衡。本文以1986—2021年全国2 827个县(区、市)的耕地历史数据为样本,构建耕地总量动态平衡量化指标,并以农产品地理标志认证作为外生冲击,通过多时点双重差分法评估农产品品牌建设对耕地总量动态平衡的影响。结果表明:1)农产品地理标志认证显著提升县(区、市)耕地总量的动态平衡;2)机制分析显示,该认证通过促进县(区、市)农业产业化发展和降低人口外流,间接提升耕地总量动态平衡;3)异质性分析表明,在粮食非主产区、多熟区、非贫困县,农产品地理标志认证的促进作用更为显著,其中种植类农产品地理标志的作用优于其他类别;4)该认证对未获得认证的相邻县(区、市)存在正向空间溢出效应,同时能够显著缓解气候风险对耕地总量动态平衡的负向冲击。研究表明,农产品地理标志认证在提升耕地总量动态平衡方面具有重要作用,未来应构建“增量-质量-布局”政策闭环,通过扩大品牌增量、提升存量品牌质量及优化品牌空间布局,进一步释放政策效能。

     

    Abstract: The “Central Document No. 1” of 2025 emphasizes the strict control of the total amount of cultivated land to ensure its annual dynamic balance. Using historical data on cultivated land from 2,827 counties (districts and cities) across China between 1986 and 2021, this study constructs a quantitative indicator to measure the dynamic balance of total cultivated land. Taking the certification of geographical indications of agricultural products (GI) as an exogenous shock, a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model is employed to assess the impact of agricultural branding on the dynamic balance of cultivated land. The empirical results show that: 1) GI certification significantly improves the dynamic balance of cultivated land at the county level; 2) mechanism analysis indicates that GI certification indirectly enhances land balance by promoting agricultural industrialization and reducing population outflow; 3) heterogeneity analysis reveals that the promoting effect of GI certification is more significant in non-grain-producing areas, multiple-cropping regions, and non-poverty counties, with planting-type GIs showing stronger effects than other types; 4) GI certification generates positive spatial spillover effects on adjacent uncertified counties and significantly mitigates the negative impacts of climate risks on the dynamic balance of cultivated land. The findings suggest that GI certification plays an important role in improving the dynamic balance of cultivated land. In the future, policymakers should establish a policy loop of “increment-quality-layout” to further enhance policy effectiveness by expanding brand quantity, improving brand quality, and optimizing spatial brand layout.

     

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