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旱灾对粮食产量的影响效应基于财政支农的门槛效应分析

The impact of drought on food production: a threshold effect analysis based on financial support to agriculture

  • 摘要: 财政支农是缓解旱灾影响、保障粮食安全和促进农业稳产增收的重要政策工具。探明财政支农在旱灾-粮食系统中的作用机制及其效应“拐点”对于提升农业防灾减灾能力具有重要意义。本文基于旱灾等级标准对中国31个省份进行旱灾分级,揭示2000—2022年旱灾的时空演变特征,并运用固定效应模型实证检验不同旱灾等级对粮食单产的影响。进一步以财政支农水平为门槛变量,构建面板门槛回归模型,挖掘财政支农对旱灾-粮食系统影响的临界点及异质性特征。研究发现:我国旱灾整体呈现强度减弱、范围缩小的趋势,旱灾对粮食单产的负向影响显著且具区域差异,表现为Ⅳ类地区最为显著;财政支农在旱灾-粮食系统中存在显著的非线性门槛效应,识别出6.50%和14.28%两个关键门槛值,财政支农对旱灾影响的缓解作用在两个门槛区间内表现最为显著;门槛效应随时间与地区特征而异,2010年后财政支农的门槛值显著提高,北方地区的抗灾边际收益更为明显,南方则呈现先减后增的非线性变化趋势。研究结果为因时因地优化财政支农投入结构、提升农业系统韧性提供了政策参考。

     

    Abstract: Financial support to agriculture is a crucial policy tool for mitigating the impact of droughts, ensuring food security, and promoting stable agricultural production and income growth. Understanding the mechanism and inflection points of its effects within the drought–food system is essential for enhancing agricultural disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. Based on drought classification standards, this study classifies drought events across 31 provinces in China and reveals their spatiotemporal evolution from 2000 to 2022. A fixed effects model is employed to empirically test the impact of different drought severity levels on grain yield. Furthermore, using the level of financial support to agriculture as a threshold variable, a panel threshold regression model is constructed to identify the critical values and heterogeneous characteristics of its effect on the drought–food system. The results show that overall drought intensity and affected area in China have declined over time, and the negative impact of drought on grain yield is significant and regionally heterogeneous, with the most severe effects observed in Class IV regions. There is a significant nonlinear threshold effect of financial support within the drought–food system, with two critical threshold values identified at 6.50% and 14.28%. The mitigation effect of financial support is most pronounced between these thresholds. The threshold effects vary across time and regions: after 2010, the threshold values increased significantly, reflecting greater demands for fiscal efficiency as agricultural resilience improves; in northern China, the marginal benefit of disaster mitigation is more evident, while in southern regions, the effect shows a nonlinear pattern of decreasing first and then increasing. These findings provide policy implications for optimizing the structure of financial support according to local conditions and improving the resilience of the agricultural system.

     

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