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非农化生计转型如何影响农户绿肥种植行为基于全国微观调查数据

The impact of farmers’ off-farm livelihood transition on green production behavior: a case study of green manure planting

  • 摘要: 快速恢复和推广绿肥种植,发挥绿肥资源的传统优势,是推进农业绿色发展的有效手段。然而,农户非农化生计转型可能对劳动密集型的绿肥种植产生不利冲击。为探明这一影响,本文基于农户非农化生计转型与绿肥种植行为关系的理论分析,借助《中国家庭大数据库》的全国10 630个农户微观数据,实证检验了非农化生计转型对农户绿肥种植行为的影响及其内在机制。结果表明:农户非农化生计转型显著抑制了绿肥种植行为,且转型程度越深,其种植绿肥的概率越小,该结论经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。异质性分析表明,非农化生计转型对小规模、少劳动力、低利润预期的农户绿肥种植行为具有更为显著的负向影响。机制分析证实,农户非农化生计转型通过人力资本约束效应和较低的要素替代效应影响绿肥种植行为。本文的边际贡献在于,从人力资本约束效应与要素替代效应两个维度,系统揭示了非农化转型抑制劳动密集型绿色技术的深层结构性矛盾,突破了“资本可完全替代劳动”的简单假设,为推进农业绿色转型提供了微观经验证据。据此,本文提出应通过完善农业社会化服务体系、加强技术培训及优化要素配置等措施,缓解非农化转型对绿肥种植行为的不利影响,促进绿肥种植。

     

    Abstract: Reviving and promoting green manure cultivation is an effective means of advancing green agricultural development. However, farmers’ transition to off-farm livelihood may adversely affect the adoption of labor-intensive green manure cultivation. Based on a theoretical analysis of the relationship between farmers' off-farm livelihood transition and green manure planting behavior, this study empirically examines this relationship and its underlying mechanisms using microdata of 10 630 rural households in the China Family Database. Results show that off-farm livelihood transition significantly inhibits green manure planting: the greater the extent of the transition, the lower the probability that farmers will plant green manure. This finding remains robust after a series of robustness checks. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the negative effect is more pronounced among farmers with small-scale operations, labor shortages, and low-profit expectations. Mechanism analysis confirms that off-farm livelihood transition affects green manure planting behavior through human capital constraints and the limited substitutability of production factors. The main contribution of this study is that it systematically reveals the underlying structural tension through which off-farm livelihood transitions impede the adoption of labor-intensive green technologies, examining this tension from the dual perspectives of human capital constraints and factor substitution. It also challenges the simplistic assumption that “capital can perfectly substitute for labor” and provides microlevel empirical evidence for advancing the green transformation of agriculture. Accordingly, this paper recommends improving the agricultural socialized service system, strengthening technical training, and optimizing factor allocation to mitigate the adverse effects of off-farm livelihood transitions and promote green manure cultivation.

     

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