Abstract:
As a vital grain-producing and agricultural development zone in China, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River plays an important role in regional ecological regulation and green development through its farmland ecosystem carbon absorption and emissions characteristics. Based on farmland ecosystem data from 31 prefecture-level cities in this region covering the period from 2012 to 2023, this study uses the Dagum Gini coefficient and social network analysis to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of net carbon sequestration, spatial correlation network features, and carbon balance zoning in the region. The results show that: 1) Total net carbon sequestration increased from 44.906 5 million tonnes to 56.639 6 million tonnes, with an average annual growth rate of 2.18%, exhibiting a three-stage pattern of “steady growth - fluctuating adjustment - accelerated enhancement”. The spatial pattern shows “scattered low-value zones and clustered high-value zones”, with high-value zones expanding from 3 to 13 regions; 2) Spatial correlation network density increased from 0.32 to 0.41, forming a multi-centered linkage structure centered on Wuhan, Changsha, and Nanchang. Peripheral cities such as Jingdezhen and Yingtan had low participation, while network efficiency increased from 0.721 to 1.0; 3) The overall Gini coefficient was 0.37, indicating significant regional disparities. Inter-group differences contributed 55.69% to the total variation, with the Hubei-Hunan differences being the most pronounced. Intra-group differences accounted for 32.86%, revealing internal imbalances, and super-variability density was 9.80%, reflecting cross-influence; 4) Carbon balance zoning reveals: Low-carbon conservation zones exhibit excellent ecological conditions but weaker economies; economic development zones show high output and substantial emission pressures; carbon sink development zones possess significant carbon sequestration potential but weak infrastructure; and comprehensive optimization zones have relatively balanced ecological and economic attributes. Based on these findings, the study suggests strengthening core-led development, optimizing cross-regional collaboration, and implementing differentiated policies to provide theoretical and practical guidance for the green transformation of agriculture in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.