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长江中游地区农田生态系统净碳汇空间关联特征及碳平衡分区研究

Spatial correlation network characteristics and carbon balance zoning of net carbon sinks in farmland ecosystems of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River

  • 摘要: 长江中游地区作为中国重要粮食生产和农业发展区,其农田生态系统碳吸收与排放特征对区域生态调控与绿色发展具有重要意义。基于该地区31个地级市2012—2023年的农田生态系统数据,采用Dagum基尼系数和社会网络分析法,系统解析区域农田生态系统净碳汇的时空演化、空间关联网络特征及碳平衡分区。结果表明:1)净碳汇总量由4 490.65万t增至5 663.96万t,年均增速2.18%,呈“稳步增长-波动调整-加速提升”三阶段特征;空间格局表现为“低值区点状分散、高值区片状集聚”,高值区从3个地区扩展至13个地区;2)空间关联网络密度由0.32升至0.41,形成以武汉、长沙、南昌为核心的多中心联动结构,景德镇、鹰潭等边缘城市参与度较低,网络效率由0.721升至1.0;3)总体基尼系数为0.37,区域差异显著,其中组间差异贡献率55.69%,鄂湘差异最突出;组内差异32.86%,内部存在不均衡;超变密度9.80%,呈交叉影响;4)碳平衡分区显示:低碳保持区生态优良但经济较弱;经济发展区产出高、排放压力大;碳汇发展区碳汇潜力大但基础薄弱;综合优化区生态与经济属性较均衡。基于此,提出强化核心带动、优化跨区协作及差异化政策,为长江中游农业绿色转型提供理论与实践参考。

     

    Abstract: As a vital grain-producing and agricultural development zone in China, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River plays an important role in regional ecological regulation and green development through its farmland ecosystem carbon absorption and emissions characteristics. Based on farmland ecosystem data from 31 prefecture-level cities in this region covering the period from 2012 to 2023, this study uses the Dagum Gini coefficient and social network analysis to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of net carbon sequestration, spatial correlation network features, and carbon balance zoning in the region. The results show that: 1) Total net carbon sequestration increased from 44.906 5 million tonnes to 56.639 6 million tonnes, with an average annual growth rate of 2.18%, exhibiting a three-stage pattern of “steady growth - fluctuating adjustment - accelerated enhancement”. The spatial pattern shows “scattered low-value zones and clustered high-value zones”, with high-value zones expanding from 3 to 13 regions; 2) Spatial correlation network density increased from 0.32 to 0.41, forming a multi-centered linkage structure centered on Wuhan, Changsha, and Nanchang. Peripheral cities such as Jingdezhen and Yingtan had low participation, while network efficiency increased from 0.721 to 1.0; 3) The overall Gini coefficient was 0.37, indicating significant regional disparities. Inter-group differences contributed 55.69% to the total variation, with the Hubei-Hunan differences being the most pronounced. Intra-group differences accounted for 32.86%, revealing internal imbalances, and super-variability density was 9.80%, reflecting cross-influence; 4) Carbon balance zoning reveals: Low-carbon conservation zones exhibit excellent ecological conditions but weaker economies; economic development zones show high output and substantial emission pressures; carbon sink development zones possess significant carbon sequestration potential but weak infrastructure; and comprehensive optimization zones have relatively balanced ecological and economic attributes. Based on these findings, the study suggests strengthening core-led development, optimizing cross-regional collaboration, and implementing differentiated policies to provide theoretical and practical guidance for the green transformation of agriculture in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.

     

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