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水库移民后资源承载力与生态治理成效评估以三峡库首秭归县为例

Assessment of resource carrying capacity and ecological governance after reservoir resettlement: a case study of Zigui County, Three Gorges Reservoir

  • 摘要: 三峡水利工程作为世界最大的水利枢纽工程,在防洪、发电、航运和水资源利用等方面发挥了重要作用,其移民工程对生态环境的影响亦备受关注。本文以三峡库首秭归县为例,定量评估了2000年至2020年期间秭归县耕地、水资源及生态系统承载力的变化及生态治理成效。结果显示,51.3%的区域耕地承载力得到改善,粮食盈余村比例由2000年的50.8%提升至2020年的67.5%,但蓄水淹没区、三峡坝区及移民安置区仍存在耕地超载问题;水资源承载力由47.45万人增加至117.27万人,远超实际人口,整体保持盈余;2020年有66%的乡村达到生态平衡及盈余状态,比2000年提高30个百分点。生态系统碳固持和水源涵养分别提升13.4%和35.03%,中度及以上土壤侵蚀面积占比降至17.82%。研究表明,三峡库区从早期环境容量不足向资源承载力提升及生态治理效果显著转变,移民外迁政策与生态保护措施发挥了关键作用。针对南部部分区域生态超载问题,应成为三峡后续帮扶与生态保护治理的重点。

     

    Abstract: As the world’s largest hydraulic engineering project, the Three Gorges Project has played a vital role in flood control, power generation, navigation, and water resource utilization. Meanwhile, the ecological and environmental impacts of the associated resettlement project have attracted significant attention. This study takes Zigui County, located at the head of the Three Gorges Reservoir, as a case to quantitatively assess the changes in cropland, water, and ecological carrying capacities from 2000 to 2020, as well as the effectiveness of ecological governance. The results show that 51.3% of the area experienced improvements in cropland carrying capacity, with the proportion of grain-surplus villages rising from 50.8% in 2000 to 67.5% in 2020. However, cropland overload remains a concern in reservoir submersion zones, the dam area, and resettlement zones. The water resource carrying capacity increased from 470 thousand to 1.17 million people, significantly exceeding the actual population and maintaining an overall surplus. By 2020, 66% of villages reached ecological balance or surplus status, marking a 30 percentage point increase over 2000. From 2000 to 2020, ecosystem carbon sequestration and water conservation capacity rose by 13.4% and 35.03%, respectively, while the proportion of areas with moderate or higher soil erosion declined to 17.82%. These findings indicate that the Three Gorges Reservoir area has shifted from an early stage of limited environmental capacity to improved resource carrying capacity and effective ecological governance. Policies on out-migration resettlement and ecological conservation have played a crucial role. Special attention should be given to the ecological overload issues that persist in parts of the southern region, which should become a focus of future support and ecological protection efforts in the post-relocation stage.

     

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