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安徽省设施农用地时空格局分异特征及其驱动因素

Spatiotemporal differentiation patterns and driving factors of facility agricultural land in Anhui Province

  • 摘要: 设施农用地是推进乡村振兴战略的重要土地资源,其规模日益增长,已成为土地利用与管理研究的重难点。本文基于安徽省75个县级面板数据,采用动态度、重心迁移、空间自相关等模型算法,探究设施农用地演变格局及其驱动因素。结果表明:1)设施农用地总体呈现显著增加态势,中部地区优先增长,带动南北区域协同增长;2)2005—2023年,设施农用地逐渐呈现东西、南北方向的倒“U”型特征,重心向西北方向移动且经向、纬向变化均颇大,标准差椭圆变化明显且向偏北方向移动;3)自2010年以来设施农用地呈现正向显著的空间集聚特征,高—高聚集区向皖北平原集中,低—低聚集区向皖南山地丘陵区域聚集;4)设施农用地时空格局演变受到年降水量、平均高程、地均第一产值、设施农业物资消耗量、农村居民人均可支配收入和科学技术财政支出等因素共同影响,最后,为促进安徽省设施农用地利用与管理,提出了以下建议:聚焦机械化提升,促进设施农业高效发展;依托资源禀赋,优化区域产业结构布局;发挥区位优势,推动科技赋能现代农业。

     

    Abstract: Facility agricultural land has become an increasingly important land resource for advancing the rural revitalization strategy. Its rapid expansion has made it a focal and challenging issue in land-use and land-management research. Based on panel data from 75 county-level units in Anhui Province, this study employs dynamic degree analysis, gravity-center migration models, and spatial autocorrelation techniques to examine the spatiotemporal evolution patterns of facility agricultural land and its driving factors. The results indicate that: 1) Facility agricultural land demonstrates a pronounced upward trend, with the central region experiencing earlier and faster growth that subsequently facilitates coordinated expansion across the northern and southern regions; 2) From 2005 to 2023, facility agricultural land gradually developed an inverted “U-shaped” distribution along both the east-west and north-south axes. Its gravity center shifted northwestward, accompanied by substantial longitudinal and latitudinal variations, and the standard deviational ellipse exhibited marked changes coupled with a northward displacement; 3) Since 2010, facility agricultural land has shown a significant and positive spatial agglomeration pattern. High-high clusters have increasingly concentrated in the Northern Anhui Plain, whereas low-low clusters have converged in the mountainous and hilly areas of southern Anhui; 4) The spatiotemporal evolution of facility agricultural land is jointly shaped by multiple factors, including annual precipitation, mean elevation, primary industry output per unit area, material inputs in facility agriculture, rural residents’ per capita disposable income, and government expenditure on science and technology. To enhance the utilization and governance of facility agricultural land in Anhui Province, this study proposes the following policy recommendations: Prioritize the improvement of agricultural mechanization to promote the high-efficiency development of facility agriculture; Optimize regional industrial structures by leveraging local resource endowments; Capitalize on locational advantages to strengthen technological empowerment in modern agriculture.

     

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