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中国种植业减污降碳协同效应测度及实现路径分析

Measurement and realization path analysis of synergistic effect of pollution and carbon reduction in the planting industry in China

  • 摘要: 中国农业绿色发展已步入“降碳、减污、扩绿、增长”协同推进的新阶段,减污降碳协同增效已成为推动农业绿色转型的内在要求。本研究基于边际减排成本视角,对中国种植业减污降碳协同效应进行实证考察。研究发现:1)我国种植业的边际减污成本和边际降碳成本均呈现波动上升趋势,联合减排策略对减污降碳的成本控制更为有效。2)2000—2022年中国种植业减污降碳协同效应呈现波动上升趋势,联合减排对减污效应更为显著,而降碳效应则随着时间逐步增强。3)东部地区减污降碳协同效应最高,西部地区次之,中部地区和东北地区相对较低,且省域之间的减污降碳协同效应也存在显著差异。4)在生态保护、降碳优先、能源转型和农业现代化四种情景下,种植业减污降碳协同效应具有37.35%~39.97%的提升空间,并从边际成本最小化与协同效应最大化两个方面提出了不同省份减污降碳协同增效的最优路径,为“十四五”规划阶段推进减污降碳协同增效的政策制定提供参考。

     

    Abstract: China’s agricultural green development has entered a new stage of coordinated advancement in “carbon reduction, pollution reduction, green expansion, and growth”. The synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction has become an inherent requirement for promoting the green transformation of agriculture. This study empirically examines the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in China’s planting industry from the perspective of marginal abatement costs. Results show that: 1) The marginal abatement costs for pollution and carbon in China’s planting industry both show a fluctuating upward trend, and the joint abatement strategy is more effective in controlling the costs of pollution reduction and carbon reduction. 2) The synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in China’s planting industry from 2000 to 2022 shows a fluctuating upward trend. The joint abatement strategy is more significant for pollution reduction, while the carbon reduction effect gradually strengthens over time. 3) The synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction is highest in the eastern region, followed by the western region, with the central and northeastern regions being relatively lower. There are also significant differences in the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction among provinces. And 4) under four scenarios of ecological protection, carbon reduction priority, energy transition, and agricultural modernization, the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction in the planting industry has a potential improvement space of 37.35% to 39.97%. Based on the above findings, this paper proposes optimal paths for different provinces to achieve synergy in pollution reduction and carbon reduction from the perspectives of minimizing marginal costs and maximizing synergy effects, providing a reference for policy formulation to promote the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.

     

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