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新型基础设施建设促进农业产业链韧性提升的理论机制研究

Theoretical mechanism study on the promotion of agricultural industry chain resilience by new infrastructure construction

  • 摘要: 在内外部风险叠加的背景下,新型基础设施建设成为提升农业产业链韧性的关键举措。本文基于2011—2020年中国省域面板数据,采用熵权法测度新型基础设施建设与农业产业链韧性水平,运用双向固定效应、中介效应及调节效应模型,实证检验二者的影响机制。研究结果表明:1)新型基础设施建设显著促进农业产业链韧性,且该结论通过多项稳健性检验得到验证;2)受经济基础和产业结构差异影响,新型基础设施建设对东部地区的作用不显著,但对政策扶持力度大、发展潜力强的中西部地区具有显著提升效果;粮食主产区依托规模化优势,新型基础设施建设对农业产业链韧性的提升更为显著,而非粮食主产区因产业分散,其提升作用较为有限;3)新型基础设施建设通过推动农业产业结构升级,间接增强农业产业链韧性;4)社会消费水平的提升显著正向调节新型基础设施建设对农业产业链韧性的促进作用。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of overlapping internal and external risks, new infrastructure construction has become a key measure for enhancing the resilience of the agricultural industrial chain. Based on provincial panel data from China spanning 2011 to 2020, this study employs the entropy weight method to measure the levels of new infrastructure construction and agricultural industrial chain resilience. A two-way fixed effects model, a mediating effect model, and a moderating effect model are used to empirically examine the mechanisms at play. The findings indicate that: 1) new infrastructure construction significantly promotes agricultural industrial chain resilience, a conclusion supported by multiple robustness tests; 2) due to differences in economic foundations and industrial structures, the effect of new infrastructure construction is insignificant in eastern regions, while it shows a significant positive effect in central and western regions with strong policy support and high development potential. In major grain-producing areas, new infrastructure construction has a stronger effect due to economies of scale, whereas its impact is relatively limited in non-grain-producing areas with fragmented industrial layouts; 3) new infrastructure construction indirectly enhances agricultural industrial chain resilience by promoting the upgrading of the agricultural industrial structure; 4) higher levels of social consumption significantly and positively moderate the effect of new infrastructure construction on agricultural industrial chain resilience.

     

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