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国家现代农业产业园建设对农民收入的影响基于中国县级数据的经验证据

The impact of national modern agricultural industrial park construction on farmers’ income: empirical evidence from county-level data in China

  • 摘要: 作为推动农业现代化与乡村振兴的重要举措,国家现代农业产业园建设已在全国范围内广泛推进。本文基于2013—2023年县域面板数据,运用准自然实验设计和双重差分(DID)模型,系统评估了国家现代农业产业园建设对农民收入的影响。研究发现:1)现代农业产业园建设显著提升了农民收入,尤其对农村居民可支配收入和经营性收入的提升作用更为突出;2)现代农业产业园通过推动农业产业发展(提升农业产值、扩大农业就业、促进农业企业创立和产业集聚)以及促进非农产业发展(增加二三产业产值和非农就业比重),有效带动了农民收入增长;3)政策增收效应存在明显异质性,高收入地区和距离省会城市较远地区的农民收入提升更为显著;此外,当产业园主导产业与当地农产品区域公用品牌主体产业一致时,对农民收入的正向影响更为明显。基于上述结论,建议政府适度扩大现代农业产业园建设规模,以带动区域产业发展和农户增收;注重产业园主导产业与当地公用品牌产业的协同发展;同时强化政策导向,确保产业园建设的长效性与可持续性。

     

    Abstract: The construction of national modern agricultural industrial parks, as an important initiative to promote agricultural modernization and rural revitalization, has been widely implemented across China. Based on county-level panel data from 2013 to 2023, this study employs a quasi-natural experiment design and a difference-in-differences (DID) model to systematically evaluate the impact of National Modern Agricultural Industrial Park construction on farmers' income. The results show that, first, the construction of these parks significantly increases farmers' income, with more pronounced effects on rural residents' disposable income and operating income. Second, the parks promote farmers’ income growth through two main channels. On the one hand, they advance agricultural industrial development by increasing agricultural output, expanding agricultural employment, fostering the establishment of agricultural enterprises, and enhancing industrial agglomeration. On the other hand, they stimulate non-agricultural industrial development by increasing the value added of secondary and tertiary industries and raising the proportion of non-agricultural employment. Third, the income-enhancing effects exhibit significant heterogeneity. The effects are more pronounced in high-income areas and in regions located farther from provincial capitals. In addition, when the leading industries of the parks are aligned with the main industries of local regional public brands of agricultural products, the positive impact on farmers’ income is stronger. Based on these findings, the government should appropriately expand the scale of Modern Agricultural Industrial Park construction to promote regional industrial development and increase farmers' income. It is also necessary to strengthen the coordination between the parks’ leading industries and local regional public brands, and to improve policy guidance in order to ensure long-term effectiveness and sustainable development.

     

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