Abstract:
Facing the uncertainty of climate-related disasters, developing climate-resilient agriculture is the only way to ensure the stable supply of key agricultural products. Therefore, enhancing the resilience of agricultural product supply chains is crucial. From the perspective of climate change, this study constructs an evaluation index system for the resilience of agricultural product supply chains and employs the Kernel density estimation, the Dagum Gini coefficient, and the Markov chain analysis methods to analyze the resilience of China’s agricultural product supply chains from 2011 to 2023. Results show that: during the sample period, the resilience of China’s agricultural product supply chain shows a steady upward trend, but the average annual growth rate varies significantly; the overall disparity in resilience of China’s agricultural product supply chains has decreased, with regional disparities being the main cause of this change; China’s agricultural product supply chain resilience exhibits a clear “club convergence” characteristic, where the evolution of resilience is not only influenced by spatial proximity but also closely linked to the original resilience level; climate change, rural labor migration, and urbanization reduce the resilience of agricultural product supply chains, while agricultural product trade contributes to improving resilience. Finally, this study provides the following recommendations for enhancing the risk resistance, adaptive capacity, and recovery capabilities of agricultural product supply chains in China: implementing differentiated development strategies in each climate zone, actively responding to climate change, and promoting agricultural development that is adapted to climate change.