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国家城乡融合发展试验区政策的农业碳减排效应

Agricultural carbon reduction effect of the national urban-rural integration pilot zone policy

  • 摘要: 城乡融合发展是推动农业发展绿色转型、促进我国生态农业体系建设的应有之义。本文解构国家城乡融合发展试验区政策促进农业碳减排的理论逻辑,采用双重差分模型、中介效应模型和空间杜宾模型等方法系统考察国家城乡融合发展试验区设立对农业碳排放的影响效果、作用机制及空间溢出效应。研究发现:1)政策能有效抑制区域农业碳排放,该结论经一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。2)异质性分析结果表明,随着农业碳排放不断升高,政策对农业碳排放的抑制作用存在边际递减效应;从农业碳源来看,政策的农业碳减排效应主要通过减少农用化肥、农用塑料薄膜、农业灌溉和农药碳排放实现;从农业生产功能定位来看,政策更能有效抑制非粮食主产区的农业碳排放。3)作用机制结果表明,政策通过促进土地流转和强化环境规制间接促进农业碳减排,而政策提升了农业机械化水平却削弱了其农业碳减排效应。4)空间效应结果表明,政策不仅有效抑制本地区的农业碳排放,还会对邻近地区的农业碳排放产生显著的抑制效果。据此,提出要积极总结和推广国家城乡融合发展试验区政策的典型经验、因地制宜探索政策赋能农业碳减排的机制路径和加强区域间农业绿色低碳循环体系一体化建设等对策建议。

     

    Abstract: Urban-rural integrated development is the proper meaning of promoting the green transformation of agricultural development and promoting the construction of our country's ecological agriculture system. This paper deconstructs the theoretical logic underpinning the promotion of agricultural carbon emissions reduction through national urban-rural integration pilot zone policy. It employs methods including the difference-in-differences model, mediation effect model, and spatial Durbin model to systematically examine the impact, operational mechanisms, and spatial spillover effects of national urban-rural integration pilot zone policy on agricultural carbon emissions. The results show that: 1) The benchmark regression results indicate that the policy effectively reduces agricultural carbon emissions in the region. This conclusion remains valid after undergoing a series of robustness tests. 2) The results of heterogeneity analysis show that with the continuous increase of agricultural carbon emissions, the national urban-rural integration pilot zone policy has a marginal decreasing effect on agricultural carbon emissions. From the perspective of agricultural carbon sources, the agricultural carbon emission reduction effect of the national urban-rural integration pilot zone policy is mainly achieved by reducing the carbon emissions of agricultural fertilizers, agricultural plastic films, agricultural irrigation and pesticides. From the perspective of agricultural production function positioning, the national urban-rural integration pilot zone policy can effectively curb agricultural carbon emissions in non-grain-producing areas. 3) Mechanism regression results show that the national urban-rural integration pilot zone policy indirectly promotes agricultural carbon emission reduction by agricultural promoting land transfer and strengthening environmental regulation, while the national urban-rural integration pilot zone policy improves the level of agricultural mechanization but weakens its agricultural carbon emission reduction effect. 4) The spatial effect results show that the national urban-rural integration pilot zone policy can not only effectively inhibit agricultural carbon emissions in the region, but also have a significant inhibition effect on agricultural carbon emissions in neighboring areas. Accordingly, it is proposed to actively summarise and disseminate exemplary practices from national urban-rural integration pilot zone policy, explore tailored mechanisms for leveraging policy to empower agricultural carbon reduction, and strengthen integrated development of green, low-carbon, and circular agricultural systems across regions.

     

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