Abstract:
With the intensification of rural aging and the continuous improvement of China’s rural social security system, the New Rural Pension Insurance (NRPI) has become a vital institutional arrangement for ensuring the well-being of elderly farmers and promoting the sustainable development of rural areas. Based on data from the 2014–2020 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS), this study aims to examine the impact of NRPI on the livelihood resilience of elderly farmers, offering policy insights for establishing a long-term mechanism for stable poverty alleviation and advancing rural revitalization. The livelihood resilience of elderly farmers is measured using the entire-array-polygon indicator method, and Propensity Score Matching (PSM) along with mediation effect models are employed to empirically analyze the impact of NRPI and its underlying mechanisms. The findings reveal that: 1) participation in NRPI significantly improves the livelihood resilience of elderly farmers; 2) agricultural capital investment, recreational and healthcare consumption, and non-farm employment are important transmission mechanisms through which NRPI enhances livelihood resilience; 3) heterogeneity analysis shows that the positive effects of NRPI are more significant for households adopting wage-oriented or balanced livelihood strategies, and for those with less-educated household heads; 4) NRPI facilitates a shift among elderly farmers from traditional farming-dominated livelihoods to more diversified strategies, significantly reducing their dependence on subsidies. These findings underscore the importance of improving the protection level of NRPI through differentiated pension policies to fully realize its role in promoting the sustainable development of rural households.