Abstract: Ensuring grain and cotton security is a strategic priority in building a strong agricultural nation in the new era. As a major cotton production base, Xinjiang plays a pivotal role in safeguarding national cotton supply. Understanding the spatiotemporal evolution and driving forces of cotton production patterns is essential for optimizing cropping structures, improving resource allocation efficiency, enhancing industrial competitiveness, and reinforcing the foundation of national grain and cotton security. Based on panel data from 81 counties or districts in Xinjiang from 1990 to 2020, this study employs a gravity center model, yield contribution decomposition, and a linear mixed-effects model to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of cotton production. The results reveal a continued concentration of cotton production in the main areas along the northern and southern slopes of the Tianshan The production center shifted northward toward the mountains, exhibiting a “slope-climbing” and “water-following” migration pattern. In most counties or districts, production growth has been primarily driven by the expansion of sown area, while only a few regions have achieved growth through yield improvement. Further quantitative analysis shows that climate-induced changes in hydrothermal conditions passively influence cotton production patterns through spatial adaptation. In contrast, factors such as grain-cotton competition, agricultural input intensity, target price policies, and improved seed subsidies actively shape the cropping structure and serve as key drivers of spatial changes in cotton production.