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东北平原农业规模经营潜力评价与分区发展

The evaluation of the potential of agricultural scale operation and its zoning development in the Northeast Plain

  • 摘要: 农业规模经营是东北平原实现农业现代化、落实保障粮食安全任务的重要基础,全面评价该地区农业规模经营潜力并制定分区发展策略可为其推进农业规模经营提供依据。本文以东北平原1 775个乡镇为研究单元,从资源要素、技术条件、制度环境3个维度构建农业规模经营潜力评价体系,应用熵权法评价地区农业规模经营潜力;综合各乡镇农业规模经营条件和农业经营类型,运用K-means聚类分析等方法划分农业规模经营两级分区并提出发展策略。结果表明:1)乡镇间农业规模经营潜力存在较大差异;空间上呈现“三江平原>松嫩平原>辽河平原”的梯度分布特征;2)资源要素和技术条件优势显著,制度环境是短板要素。资源要素、技术条件两个维度呈现“北高南低”的空间分布格局;社会政策维度呈现“高值乡镇集聚在松嫩平原南部,低值乡镇大范围分布”的特征。3)可划分为4个农业规模经营大区和15个亚区,各大区应分别遵循协同提质、合作提升、资源适配、适度推进的策略,各亚区则据此采取更具针对性的发展措施。后续,地区发展农业规模经营要着力补齐短板;因地制宜发展差异化的经营模式;注重与新质生产力的深度融合。

     

    Abstract: Agricultural scale operation is an important foundation for achieving agricultural modernization and implementing the task of ensuring food security in the Northeast Plain. Comprehensively evaluating the potential of agricultural scale operation and formulating zoned development strategies in the region can provide evidence for promoting agricultural scale operation. Taking 1 775 townships in the Northeast Plain as the research unit, this paper constructed an evaluation system of agricultural scale operation potential from 3 dimensions of resource element, technological condition, and institutional environment and adopted entropy weight analysis to measure agricultural scale operation potential in the region. Considering both the agricultural scale operation conditions and agricultural management types of each township, and using methods including K-means clustering analysis, the study delineated the two-level zoning of agricultural scale operation and proposed development strategies. Results showed that: 1) The agricultural scale operation potential displayed a significant difference among townships. In space, there was a gradient distribution pattern of “Sanjiang Plain > Songnen Plain > Liaohe Plain”; 2) The resource element and technological condition exhibited significant advantages, while the institutional environment was the shortcoming. The spatial distributions of the resource element dimension and technological condition dimension showed a “high in the north, low in the south” pattern. The institutional environment dimension exhibited a distribution pattern of “high-value townships clustered in the southern Songnen Plain, while low-value townships were widely distributed”, and 3) The Northeast Plain was divided into 4 agricultural scale operation zones and 15 subzones. Each zone should follow strategies of coordination and quality improvement, cooperative enhancement, resource allocation and moderate advancement, respectively. The subzones should then implement more targeted development measures accordingly. In the following stages, the Northeast Plain should fully focus on strengthening the shortcomings to improve agricultural scale operation, exploring differentiated business models adapted to local conditions, and concentrating on the deep integration with new quality productive forces.

     

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