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数字经济对农业高质量发展的影响研究:基于网络溢出与空间计量视角

Research on the impact of digital economy on agricultural high-quality development: from the perspectives of network spillover and spatial econometrics

  • 摘要: 为探讨数字经济对农业高质量发展的影响,本文以黄河流经的9省份地级市为研究对象,选取2011—2020年间的数据,运用熵值法、修正引力模型、探索性数据分析方法和空间计量模型,系统分析了研究区数字经济与农业高质量发展的空间关联网络、网络溢出效应及其影响机制。研究结果表明:1)研究区农业高质量发展呈现由中下游向中上游转移的趋势,分市农业高质量发展指数在样本期内普遍呈现上升趋势,但各城市间差异较大;2)研究区农业高质量发展指数呈现复杂的空间关联网络,并逐渐趋于稳定,且具有显著的网络溢出效应;3)农业高质量发展在空间上存在显著的自相关性。进一步的模型分析表明,数字经济显著提升了研究区农业高质量发展的水平,但对相关地区存在负向溢出效应。为进一步提升农业高质量发展水平,建议一方面加强农业数字化建设,并促进其与农业农村发展的战略协同;另一方面,应重视区域间融合发展,减少数字经济发展带来的空间负外部性。

     

    Abstract: To explore the impact of the digital economy on agricultural high-quality development, this study takes prefecture-level cities in nine provinces along the Yellow River as the research sample. Based on data from 2011 to 2020, the entropy method, modified gravity model, exploratory data analysis, and spatial econometric models are employed to systematically analyze the spatial association network, network spillover effects, and influencing mechanisms between the digital economy and agricultural high-quality development. The results show that: 1) Agricultural high-quality development in the study area demonstrates a trend of shifting from the middle and lower reaches to the middle and upper reaches. The agricultural high-quality development index of most cities has generally increased during the sample period, though significant inter-city disparities remain. 2) The index presents a complex and gradually stabilizing spatial association network, with significant network spillover effects. 3) Agricultural high-quality development exhibits significant spatial autocorrelation. Further model analysis reveals that the digital economy significantly promotes agricultural high-quality development in the study area, but also generates negative spillover effects on surrounding regions. To further enhance agricultural high-quality development, it is recommended to strengthen agricultural digitalization and promote its strategic coordination with rural development, while also emphasizing integrated regional development to mitigate the negative spatial externalities brought about by digital economic growth.

     

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