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种业创新促进农业产业链韧性提升的机制及异质效应研究

Mechanisms and heterogeneity of seed industry innovation in enhancing the resilience of the agricultural industry chain

  • 摘要: 种业创新是提升农业产业链韧性的关键驱动力,对保障粮食安全和推动农业现代化具有重要战略意义。基于2012—2021年中国省级面板数据,本文构建农业产业链韧性测度体系,系统分析了种业创新对农业产业链韧性的作用效应及其内在机制和异质性。研究发现:1)种业创新显著提升农业产业链韧性,该结论在考虑内生性问题后仍稳健;2)机制分析表明,种业创新通过“延链-强链”双路径显著增强农业产业链韧性;3)异质性分析显示,其促进效应在非粮食生产功能区和农业产业链韧性高值地区更为显著;4)双重门槛模型结果表明,随着地区经济发展水平和农村人力资本的提升,种业创新对农业产业链韧性的促进作用呈非线性增强特征。基于此,建议构建创新靶向锚定机制以强化延链、强链传导效能,实施空间适配的种业创新梯度赋能策略,并完善人力资本与区域发展动态适配机制。

     

    Abstract: Seed industry innovation is a key driver for enhancing the resilience of the agricultural industry chain and plays a strategically important role in ensuring food security and promoting agricultural modernization. Based on provincial panel data from China spanning 2012–2021, this study constructs a measurement system for agricultural industry chain resilience and systematically examines the effects of seed industry innovation, its internal mechanisms, and heterogeneity. The results show that: 1) seed industry innovation significantly enhances the resilience of the agricultural industry chain, and this conclusion remains robust after addressing endogeneity concerns; 2) mechanism analysis reveals that seed industry innovation strengthens industry chain resilience through dual pathways of chain extension and chain reinforcement; 3) heterogeneity analysis indicates that the promoting effect of seed industry innovation is more evident in non-grain production functional areas and regions with high resilience levels of the agricultural industry chain; 4) results of the dual threshold model demonstrate that as regional economic development and rural human capital improve, the promoting effect of seed industry innovation on agricultural industry chain resilience exhibits a nonlinear enhancement trend. Based on these findings, it is suggested to establish an innovation-targeting anchoring mechanism to enhance the transmission efficiency of chain extension and reinforcement, implement spatially adaptive gradient empowerment strategies for seed industry innovation, and improve the dynamic adaptation mechanism between human capital and regional development.

     

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