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粮食主产区农业生产效率时空演变及影响因素研究以河南省为例

Research on the spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of agricultural production efficiency in major grain-producing areas: a case study of Henan Province

  • 摘要: 粮食主产区农业生产效率的提升是国家粮食安全保障的核心环节。本文以位于粮食主产区的河南省102个县(市)为研究单元,基于多维环境变量构建多投入多产出的农业生产效率指标体系,运用三阶段DEA模型、空间自相关分析、多尺度地理加权回归等方法揭示2005、2015、2022年农业生产效率时空演变特征及其影响因素。研究表明:1)河南省县域农业生产综合效率、纯技术效率、规模效率总体呈上升趋势,效率最优县域数量显著增加;2)农业生产效率县域时空演变呈现空间异质性,其中综合效率与规模效率表现为东部平原高,西部山地丘陵区低的阶梯分布特征,纯技术效率在平原与山地丘陵过渡地带形成低值“洼地”;3)空间自相关分析进一步揭示河南省农业生产综合效率、纯技术效率和规模效率均表现出“高-高”和“低-低”集聚的趋同特征;4)多尺度地理加权回归模型揭示各因素对农业生产效率的影响呈现动态变化和空间变异性,其中产业结构对农业生产效率一直起主导作用但作用程度在逐渐减弱。

     

    Abstract: Enhancing agricultural production efficiency in major grain-producing regions is crucial for ensuring national food security. Taking 102 counties in Henan Province, a core grain-producing area, as research units, this paper constructs a multi-input and multi-output agricultural production efficiency index system that incorporates multidimensional environmental variables and utilize a three-stage DEA model, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and multi-scale geographically weighted regression (MGWR) to uncover the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural production efficiency in 2005, 2015, and 2022. Results demonstrate: 1) The comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency of agricultural production in counties of Henan Province show an upward trend, with a notable rise in the number of counties achieving optimal efficiency; 2) The spatiotemporal evolution of agricultural production efficiency exhibits distinct spatial heterogeneity. Comprehensive efficiency and scale efficiency follow a stepped distribution pattern—higher in the eastern plains and lower in the western mountainous and hilly regions—while pure technical efficiency forms low-value clusters in transitional zones between plains and hilly areas; 3) Spatial autocorrelation analysis indicates that comprehensive efficiency, pure technical efficiency, and scale efficiency all display convergent clustering patterns (“high-high” and “low-low” agglomerations); And 4) the MGWR model highlights dynamic changes and spatial variability in the impacts of influencing factors. Industrial structure remains the dominant factor affecting agricultural production efficiency, although its influence has gradually weakened over time. This study provides theoretical and empirical support for optimizing resource allocation and formulating differentiated policies to enhance agricultural production efficiency in major grain-producing regions.

     

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