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农民工返乡创业促进了县域经济增长吗?基于夜间灯光数据的实证检验

Has return-home entrepreneurship by migrant workers promoted county economic growth? Evidence from nighttime light data

  • 摘要: 随着我国农村劳动力结构变化与城乡经济转型,“打工经济”向“创业经济”的转型成为推动县域经济高质量发展的重要动力。本研究基于2008—2022年中国1 502个县域面板数据,以夜间灯光数据作为县域经济发展水平的代理,将农民工返乡创业试点政策的实施视为准自然实验,构建多时点双重差分模型,考察农民工返乡创业对县域经济的影响。研究发现:农民工返乡创业显著促进县域经济发展,其中在中西部地区和劳务输出县的效应更为突出;机制分析显示,这一效应主要通过提升当地农民收入水平和激发市场活跃度实现。基于此,政策建议包括结合区域差异持续完善返乡创业政策体系,强化返乡创业核心战略地位,构建“创业带动增收”长效机制,并优化县域软硬件环境,以推动县域经济稳步增长。

     

    Abstract: With the changing structure of China’s rural labor force and the transformation of both urban and rural economies, the shift from a “migrant worker economy” to an “entrepreneurship economy” has become an important driving force for promoting high-quality development in county economies. Based on panel data from 1,502 counties in China between 2008 and 2022, this study uses nighttime light data as a proxy for county-level economic development and regards the implementation of the pilot policy for migrant workers returning to their hometowns to start businesses as a quasi-natural experiment. A multi-period difference-in-differences model is constructed to examine the impact of migrant workers’ return-home entrepreneurship on county economic development. The results show that return-home entrepreneurship by migrant workers significantly promotes county economic growth, with the effects being more pronounced in central and western regions and in labor-exporting counties. Mechanism analysis indicates that this effect is mainly realized by improving local farmers’ income levels and enhancing market activity. Accordingly, policy implications include continuously improving the return-home entrepreneurship policy system in line with regional differences, strengthening the core strategic position of return-home entrepreneurship, establishing a long-term mechanism of “entrepreneurship-driven income growth”, and optimizing both the soft and hard environments in counties to promote steady economic growth.

     

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