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农村产业融合、人力资本与县域经济韧性

Rural Industrial Convergence, Human Capital, and County Economic Resilience

  • 摘要: 农村产业融合作为提升县域经济韧性的关键所在,对稳定经济增长与抵御风险具有极其重要的现实意义。本研究基于浙江省2008—2023年间53个县域经济发展状况,构建了农村产业融合对县域经济韧性的影响机制模型,采用双向固定效应、中介检验、门槛检验等方法实证分析了农村产业融合、人力资本和县域经济韧性之间的作用机制。结果表明:1)农村产业融合对县域经济韧性具有显著的促进作用;2)农村产业融合通过人力资本效应提升县域经济韧性;3)农村产业融合对浙东北地区的正向促进作用较强,对浙西南地区呈现较小负向影响,且在恢复调整期、冲击适应期正向促进作用较强,冲击抵御期影响较弱;4)农村产业融合对县域经济韧性存在创新能力的单一门槛效应。由此建议从加强农村产业融合、推动县域科技创新、提升园区集聚水平、实现县域因地制宜等方面促进人力资本效应,提升县域经济韧性。

     

    Abstract: Rural industrial integration plays a crucial role in boosting county economic resilience, significantly enhancing economic stability and risk management capabilities. Based on panel data from 53 counties in Zhejiang from 2008 to 2023, this study constructs a mechanism model to analyze how rural industrial integration affects economic resilience, using methods such as two-way fixed effects, intermediary test and threshold tests. The results show that: 1) rural industrial integration strongly promotes county economic resilience; 2) rural industrial integration enhances county economic resilience through human capital effects; 3) rural industrial integration exerts a strongly positive effect in northeastern Zhejiang, whereas it poses a slight negative impact on the southwestern part of the province. Furthermore, its influence is markedly positive during the recovery-adjustment and shock-adaptation phases, but becomes relatively weak throughout the impact resistance period; 4) There is a single threshold effect of innovation ability on the economic resilience of counties in rural industrial integration. Accordingly, the study suggests enhancing human capital by deepening rural industrial integration, advancing county-level technological innovation, optimizing industrial park agglomeration, and adopting localized development strategies to strengthen county economic resilience.

     

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