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“非粮化”还是“趋粮化”:数字普惠金融对种植结构的影响研究

“De-grainization” or “grainization”: the impacts of digital financial inclusion on cropping structure

  • 摘要: 种植结构是保障粮食安全、优化资源利用和稳定农民收益的核心载体,但其调整面临耕地“非粮化”倾向加剧与小农户转型困难的双重挑战。数字普惠金融能优化农业资源配置、缓解融资约束,是促进农业现代化转型的重要工具,其能否破解以及如何破解种植结构失衡成为学术界和政策制定者关注的焦点。文章基于2018年中国劳动力动态调查数据(CLDS),运用OLS回归模型与KHB中介模型实证分析数字普惠金融对种植结构调整的影响与作用机制。研究发现:1)数字普惠金融发展与种植结构调整存在显著非线性关联,总指数达到316.84时形成拐点,呈现先“非粮化”再“趋粮化”的特征。2)异质性检验显示,主产区与主销区维持典型“U”型关系,产销平衡区则因地形约束呈现倒“U”型;中高农业收入农户对金融技术响应显著,低收入群体受认知与禀赋限制存在政策失灵风险。3)农机社会化服务在数字普惠金融指数与种植结构调整的“U”型曲线关系中具有部分中介作用,中介效应贡献为8.7%。基于以上发现,本文提出了推行区域差异化政策供给、立足区域禀赋分类制定发展路径、推动农机服务与金融协同赋能及强化数字与金融基础支撑能力等政策建议,旨在遏制种植结构“非粮化”发展,保障我国粮食安全。

     

    Abstract: As a pivotal framework for ensuring food security, optimizing resource utilization, and stabilizing farmers’ income, cropping structure adjustment faces dual challenges of accelerating farmland “de-grainization” and smallholder transformation constraints. Digital financial inclusion (DFI) with its capacity to optimize agricultural resource allocation and alleviate financial constraints emerges as a critical tool for agricultural modernization. Based on the 2018 China Labor-force Dynamics Survey (CLDS) data and applying the OLS regression and the KHB mediation models, this paper investigated the DFI's impacts and mechanism on cropping structure adjustment. Key findings include: 1) There is a significant non-linear “U-shaped” relationship between the DFI development and the cropping structure adjustment, with an inflection point at the DFI index 316.8, demonstrating a sequential “de-grainization” orientation below the threshold and a “grainization” transition beyond it; 2) Heterogeneity analysis reveals the divergent patterns: a classic U-curve persistence in main grain-producing/selling regions versus an inverted U-curve in production-marketing balanced areas due to the terrain constraints, while middle-high income agricultural households exhibit significant responsiveness compared to policy inefficacy among low-income groups constrained by the cognitive and endowment limitations; and 3) Agricultural machinery services mediate 8.7% of the U-shaped relationship through mechanization substitution and scale operation pathways. Based on the empirical findings, this study proposes the following policy recommendations: implementing differentiated policy delivery tailored to regional characteristics, differentiating development pathways categorized by functional zoning, synergistically empowering agricultural machinery services and financial resources, and enhancing the digital-financial infrastructure capabilities. These measures aim to curb the structural shift toward non-grain crop cultivation and safeguard national food security through coordinated institutional innovations in production factor allocation, technological adaptation, and policy implementation.

     

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