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中国原料乳生产系统耦合协调发展的空间关联格局与驱动因素

The spatial correlation pattern and the driving factors of the coupled and coordinated development of China's raw milk production system

  • 摘要: 原料乳生产过程中资源、产业、环境、市场与产能发展失衡问题日益严重,中国奶业可持续发展受到严重制约。为促进原料乳生产协调发展,本文采用耦合协调度模型、空间相关性检验方法以及空间杜宾模型对2010—2019年中国原料乳生产系统耦合协调水平进行测度,并探究其时空演变特征及驱动因素,研究发现:1)中国各地区原料乳生产系统耦合协调度逐年稳定上升,在地理空间层面,呈现“东高西低,北高南低”态势;2)中国原料乳生产系统耦合协调度存在显著的正向空间自相关性,呈现高-高集聚和低-低集聚特征;3)在直接效应层面,对外开放水平、农村人力资本水平、市场化水平、科技创新水平、产业集聚度对本地区原料乳生产系统耦合协调发展具有显著促进作用,财政支农未对原料乳生产系统耦合协调水平产生影响。基于此,提出提升中国原料乳生产系统耦合协调水平的政策建议,以期促进原料乳生产系统高水平耦合协调发展,实现中国奶业可持续发展。

     

    Abstract: The imbalance among resource, industry, environment, market, and capacity development in the process of raw milk production is becoming increasingly serious, and the sustainable development of China's dairy industry is severely constrained. To promote the coordinated development of raw milk production, this paper adopts the coupling coordination model, the spatial correlation test and the spatial Durbin model to measure the coupling coordination level of China's raw milk production system from 2010 to 2019 and explores its spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and the driving factors. Results show that: 1) The coupling and coordination level of China's raw milk production system has been steadily increasing year by year, and at the geospatial level, it showed the trend of "high in the east and low in the west, high in the north and low in the south"; 2) The coupling and coordination level of China's raw milk production system had a significant positive spatial autocorrelation, showing the characteristics of high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration; 3) At the level of direct effects, the level of openness to the world, the level of rural human capital, the level of marketization, the level of scientific and technological innovation, and the level of industrial agglomeration have significantly contributed to the coupled and coordinated development of regional raw milk production system, while financial support to agriculture did not affect the coupled and coordinated level of raw milk production system. Based on the above results, to promote a high level of coupling and coordination of raw milk production system and achieve sustainable development of China's dairy industry, this paper provides some policy recommendations to improve the level of coupling and coordination of raw milk production system in China.

     

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