Abstract:
In recent years, price fluctuation of the hog industry chain has become more and more violent and had an impact on the development of the hog industry and household consumption. Exploring the influence of policy uncertainty on the price fluctuation of the hog industry chain is of great significance for the price stability of the hog industry chain. Based on all the hog-related reports from the
People'
s Daily from January 2001 to September 2020, this paper constructed a hog industry policy uncertainty index to analyze the dynamic impact of the change of the policy uncertainty on the prices of the hog industry chain by a time-varying parametric vector autoregression model (TVP-VAR). Results show that the influence of policy uncertainty on the price fluctuation of the hog industry chain is different among different sectors with the piglet price receiving the most impact and followed by hog and pork prices and feed price. Results also indicate alternating positive and negative changes in the direction of the impact. In the three periods of the Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), the Clenbuterol Event, the African Swine fever, policy uncertainty had different impact on the price of each sector of the hog industry chain. Policy uncertainty leads to the changes in the expected decisions and behaviors of economic entities, which in turn leads to the changes in supply and demand relations, causing price fluctuations. Based on the above results, this paper suggests that the government should carry out industrial regulation timely and appropriately, promote the construction and improvement of the market information sharing platform enhance the level of biosecurity, and strengthen cultivation of animal husbandry talents.