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生猪产业政策不确定性对产业链价格波动的影响

The impact of policy uncertainty on the price fluctuation of the hog industry chain in China

  • 摘要: 近年来,生猪产业链价格波动渐趋剧烈,对生猪产业发展和居民消费带来较大影响。探究生猪产业政策不确定性对生猪产业链价格波动的影响对稳定生猪产业链价格波动具有积极意义。本文基于《人民日报》构建生猪产业政策不确定性指数,选取2001年1月—2020年9月的月度数据,运用时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)模型实证分析了生猪产业政策不确定性变动对生猪产业链价格波动的动态影响。研究表明:生猪产业政策不确定性对产业链价格波动造成的影响存在差异,其中,对仔猪价格的冲击最大,生猪、猪肉价格次之,对饲料价格冲击最小,在冲击方向上呈现正负交替变化的特征;蓝耳病,“瘦肉精”事件,非洲猪瘟所处三个时期的生猪产业政策不确定性对产业链各环节价格的冲击影响存在差异性;生猪产业政策不确定性导致经济主体预期决策和行为发生改变,进而造成供求关系的变化,是导致价格波动的重要原因。基于此,政府产业调控应适时适度,推动市场共享信息服务体系的建设与完善;同时提高生物安全水平;加强畜牧业人才培养。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, price fluctuation of the hog industry chain has become more and more violent and had an impact on the development of the hog industry and household consumption. Exploring the influence of policy uncertainty on the price fluctuation of the hog industry chain is of great significance for the price stability of the hog industry chain. Based on all the hog-related reports from the People's Daily from January 2001 to September 2020, this paper constructed a hog industry policy uncertainty index to analyze the dynamic impact of the change of the policy uncertainty on the prices of the hog industry chain by a time-varying parametric vector autoregression model (TVP-VAR). Results show that the influence of policy uncertainty on the price fluctuation of the hog industry chain is different among different sectors with the piglet price receiving the most impact and followed by hog and pork prices and feed price. Results also indicate alternating positive and negative changes in the direction of the impact. In the three periods of the Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), the Clenbuterol Event, the African Swine fever, policy uncertainty had different impact on the price of each sector of the hog industry chain. Policy uncertainty leads to the changes in the expected decisions and behaviors of economic entities, which in turn leads to the changes in supply and demand relations, causing price fluctuations. Based on the above results, this paper suggests that the government should carry out industrial regulation timely and appropriately, promote the construction and improvement of the market information sharing platform enhance the level of biosecurity, and strengthen cultivation of animal husbandry talents.

     

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