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临时收储政策及其改革对农产品期货市场的影响

Effects of temporary purchase and storage policy and its reform on agricultural futures market

  • 摘要: 随着玉米临时收储政策取消,市场在价格形成中发挥主要作用,农业生产者面临的市场风险增加,研究临时收储政策及其改革对期货市场的影响可为期货市场服务“三农”提供参考。选择玉米和大豆两个品种,通过描述性统计分析、相关分析、协整检验、基差分析和套期保值效率分析,对2006-2015年的期货价格序列进行实证检验;从价格运行、成交情况、全球期货市场地位等方面对两个品种的期货市场综合表现进行分析。基于描述统计分析和Wilcoxon秩和检验研究临时收储政策对黄玉米和黄大豆期货价格序列的影响;结果发现临时收储政策实施、改为目标价格及取消对期货市场有不同程度影响。最后,总结临时收储政策及其改革对期货市场的作用机制,从政策扶持、市场主体培育和风险管理手段三个角度给出政策建议,提出要加大政策扶持力度,促进创新模式可持续发展;加强期货市场主体培育,完善期货市场功能;推动新品种开发,丰富风险管理手段。

     

    Abstract: The cancellation of Temporary Purchase and Storage Policy (TPSP) on corn and soybeans indicated that the market will play a major role in the formation of prices with increasing market risk to farmers. Study of the impacts of this policy and its cancellation on futures market can provide a reference for its services to agriculture, rural areas, and farmers. Through the descriptive statistical analysis, correlation analysis, co-integration test, basis difference analysis and hedging efficiency analysis, this paper conducted an empirical study on the price series of corn and soybeans from 2006 to 2015. This paper also analyzed the overall performance of futures market for corn and soybeans from the aspects of price movement, turnover situation and global status. Furtherly, this paper examined the cancellation effects of TPSP on agricultural futures market by the descriptive statistical analysis and the Wilcoxon rank sum test. Results show that TPSP cancellation and the replacing target price policy have different effects on the futures market prices. Based on the analysis results of the influencing mechanism of TPSP on futures market, this paper provides the following suggestions: increasing policy support, promoting the sustainable development of innovation mode, strengthening market player development, enhancing the functions of futures market, developing new varieties, and improving risk management tools.

     

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