基于不同属性的农产品长期价格形成与波动研究
Research on the long-term price formation and fluctuation of agricultural products with different attributes
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摘要: 不同属性农产品的价格形成和波动成因存在差异。本研究采用1965-2013年香蕉、橙子、大米、小麦、棕榈油和大豆油的国际市场年度价格数据,考察了国际农产品长期价格形成与波动的影响因素,并在此基础上分析了各因素对2004年后农产品价格上涨的贡献度。研究结果表明:国际农产品价格在波动中上升,长期上升趋势明显,短期波动剧烈;上期价格是影响农产品当期价格的主要因素,六种农产品上期价格对当期价格均有显著影响,平均影响水平0.5,且对水果的影响最显著;石油价格显著影响植物油和小麦价格,不影响水果价格,原因是油价上升引致谷物、植物油等生物燃料替代能源需求扩张;上期库存对除香蕉外的其他五种农产品价格均有显著影响,对谷物影响最显著,对水果影响最弱;收入、通货膨胀仅分别对水果、谷物价格有影响。在国际农产品价格不断上涨的形势下,为保持国内农产品价格稳定,建议适当提高农产品价格上涨容忍度、增强国内农产品供求信息透明度和加强国内农产品储备。Abstract: Price formation and fluctuation of agricultural products with different attributes are different. Based on 1965-2013 annual data of banana, orange, rice, wheat, palm oil and soybean oil, this paper analyzed the factors affecting the long-term price formation and fluctuation of agricultural products on the international market by estimating the long-term elasticities and the contributions of these factors to each agricultural product price from 1997-2004 to 2005-2013. Results show that 1) prices of agricultural products on the international market increase with fluctuations; 2) The price of previous period is the main factor affecting current price, each agricultural product’s previous price significantly affect its current price and the impact on fruits is more significant than on grains and vegetable oils; 3) Due to the expansion of demand for grains and vegetable oil caused by increasing oil price, oil price significantly affects the vegetable oil and wheat prices, but not fruit prices; 4) Stock-to-use ratios significantly affect all agricultural products except banana and the impact on grains is more significant than on others; And 5) income and inflation have significant impacts on fruit and grain prices. Facing the increasing prices of agricultural products on the international market, to maintain the domestic prices stable, this paper provides the following suggestions: increasing price increase tolerance appropriately, strengthening the transparency of supply and demand information on domestic agricultural products and enhancing the domestic agricultural product reserves.