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农民收入增长的贡献与波动——基于面板Granger因果与谱分析的实证

Contribution factors and volatility of farmers income growth in China: An empirical study based on panel data Granger causality test and spectral analysis

  • 摘要: 农民收入增长是实现全面小康社会的重要基础,对扩大内需和推动经济持续增长也具有重要意义。以科布—道格拉斯分配函数为基础导出了农民收入增长的决定关系,采用面板数据对模型进行了检验,利用面板Granger因果检验法检验了GDP及三次产业增长对农民收入增长的贡献作用,并用谱分析方法对改革开放以来经济增长与农民收入增长的波动周期进行实证比较。结果表明,在静态面板数据模型中,GDP、第一产业及第二产业增长均对农民收入增长有显著贡献,但第三产业增长对农民收入增长影响不显著。在动态面板模型中,GDP及三次产业的增长均是农民收入增长的Granger原因;农民收入的波动同时受到农业及非农产业波动的影响,GDP、第二、三产业波动的主周期为7-12年,但第一产业波动的主周期只有2.8年,农业产业的频繁波动增加了农民收入的波动程度。未来提高农民收入,需要进一步推进改革和开放的深度和广度,稳定经济增长和农业生产,强化对农业风险的控制,同时推进城镇化和农民工市民化的进程。

     

    Abstract: Farmers' income growth is an important foundation to achieve a comprehensive well-off society and it is also critical for increasing domestic demand and promoting sustainable economic growth. Based on Cobb-Douglas distribution function, using panel data Granger causality test and spectral analysis, this paper analyzed GDP and industries’ contributions to farmers’ income growth. Empirical analysis results show that 1) in the static panel data model, GDP, primary industry, and secondary industry significantly contributed to farmers' income growth, but the contribution of the tertiary industry growth is not significant; 2) in the dynamic panel data model, GDP and all the industries’ growth are the Granger causes of the farmers’ income growth; 3) farmers' income growth is affected by the fluctuations of agricultural and non-agricultural industries; 4) the main fluctuation cycle for GDP, secondary and tertiary industries is 7-12 years, but the fluctuation cycle of the first industry is only 2.8 years; and 5) the frequent fluctuations in agricultural industry increase the volatility of farmers’ income. To maintain the stable growth of farmers’ income, it is suggested that in-depth economic reform, opening up, steady economic growth, stable agricultural production, strengthening agricultural risk control, and promoting urbanization process are necessary.

     

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