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我国大宗农产品进口价差变动与调控空间

The changes of the price gap between domestic and foreign markets and the intervention band for primary agricultural commodities in China

  • 摘要: 针对近年来我国大宗农产品价格调控面临“价差扩大引发进口激增”和“农民增收要求继续提价”的两难局面,通过构建进口压力系数及价差对比等方法,分析了我国大宗农产品国内外价格变化趋势及调控空间。结果表明,我国大宗农产品国内外价差逐步扩大,进口压力不断增加,进口压力系数与净进口呈正相关关系,且均呈快速增长趋势;棉花和食糖已经没有进口配额调控空间,而大米、玉米、小麦的进口配额调控空间逐渐变小;小麦尚有一定的价格调控空间,大米、玉米的价格调控空间不大,而食糖、棉花和大豆基本已失去价格调控空间。因此,在边境保护基本失效的情况下必须调整我国现有的大宗农产品价格干预政策,探索农民收入保障和价格干预相分离的调控体系。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, China’s price intervention policy of primary agricultural commodities has been facing a difficult dilemma between “The surge in import triggered by widened price gap between domestic and foreign markets” and "Pressure from increasing farmers’ income continued to enlarge the price gap". By constructing Import Pressure Coefficient (IPC) and comparing price differences, in this paper, we analyzed the tendency of price gap between domestic and foreign markets and the intervention band of primary agricultural commodities in China. Results showed that 1) the price gap for primary agricultural commodities has been enlarging gradually; 2) import pressure has been increasing continuously; 3) IPC and net imports were positively correlated, and showing a trend of rapid growth. We also found that in terms of import quota, there was not any intervention band for cotton and sugar, while for corn, wheat and rice, this band has been decreasing gradually. Meanwhile, in the aspect of price, there was a certain price intervention band for wheat while limited for rice and corn; for sugar, cotton and soybean, there have not any intervention band. Therefore, with the failure from quota and tariff protection measures, we suggest that the government should adjust the existing agricultural commodities price intervention policy, and explore the price intervention policy system which can separate the farmers’ income protection and the price intervention.

     

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