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数字农技推广对农户科学施肥技术采纳的影响及机制研究

Digital agricultural extension and farmers’ adoption of scientific fertilization technologies: effects and mechanisms

  • 摘要: 数字农技推广能否促进农户科学施肥技术采纳,是数字乡村建设背景下推动农业绿色转型的重要问题。基于2025年河南省707户粮食种植农户调查数据,运用有序Probit模型考察数字农技推广对科学施肥技术采纳行为的影响。研究发现:1)数字农技推广方式的接触和使用广度与农户科学施肥技术采纳行为显著正相关,每增加接触或使用1种数字推广方式,不采纳概率降低9.4个百分点,采纳2类技术的概率提高7.4个百分点。2)工具变量法、倾向得分匹配及稳健性检验均支持上述结果。3)四类推广方式单独纳入模型时估计系数均显著为正,同时纳入后,数字推送和在线咨询的估计系数仍然显著为正。4)机制检验表明,感知易用性和感知有用性对应的间接效应均显著,其中感知易用性的估计系数的间接效应及占比相对较大。5)异质性分析表明,数字农技推广的作用随农户受教育程度和机械化条件呈现一定差异。因此,农技推广组织应发展低门槛、强互动的数字服务,降低技术应用难度,并依据农户禀赋与生产条件实施差异化推广。

     

    Abstract: Whether digital agricultural extension promotes farmers’ adoption of scientific fertilization technologies is an important question in advancing agricultural green transformation in the context of digital rural development. Based on survey data from 707 grain-growing households in Henan Province in 2025, this study uses an ordered Probit model to examine the effect of digital agricultural extension on farmers’ adoption of scientific fertilization technologies. The results show that: 1) Greater exposure to and use of digital agricultural extension methods are significantly associated with farmers’ adoption of scientific fertilization technologies. Each additional digital extension method that farmers are exposed to or use reduces the probability of non-adoption by 9.4 percentage points and increases the probability of adopting two categories of technologies by 7.4 percentage points. 2) Instrumental variable estimation, propensity score matching, and robustness tests support these findings. 3) When the four extension methods are included in the model separately, the estimated coefficients for all four methods are significantly positive. When they are included simultaneously, the coefficients for digital information push and online consultation remain significantly positive. 4) Mechanism analysis reveals significant indirect effects through both perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness, with perceived ease of use having a larger estimated indirect effect and mediation proportion. 5) Heterogeneity analysis reveals differences in the effects of digital agricultural extension according to farmers’ educational attainment and mechanization conditions. Therefore, agricultural extension organizations should develop accessible and interactive digital services to reduce the difficulty of technology adoption and tailor extension approaches to farmers’ individual characteristics and production conditions.

     

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