Abstract:
Rural industrial integration is an important pathway for promoting the modernization of agriculture, with significant implications for improving overall agricultural production capacity and strengthening agricultural economic resilience. Using panel data from 987 county-level administrative units in China’s major grain-producing areas from 2010 to 2024, this study employs the entropy weight method and the counterfactual measurement method to measure the levels of rural industrial integration and agricultural economic resilience, respectively, and systematically examines the impact of rural industrial integration on agricultural economic resilience and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that: 1) rural industrial integration significantly enhances agricultural economic resilience, and this finding remains robust after addressing endogeneity and conducting a series of robustness checks; 2) in terms of the underlying mechanisms, rural industrial integration enhances agricultural economic resilience by promoting appropriately scaled agricultural operations and improving labor factor allocation, whereas the transmission pathway through capital allocation efficiency is not supported by the empirical evidence; 3) in terms of threshold effects, as consumption demand volatility crosses the double thresholds, the positive effect of rural industrial integration on agricultural economic resilience first strengthens and then weakens, while the positive effect significantly weakens when agricultural production risk and fiscal pressure cross their respective thresholds; and 4) in terms of regional heterogeneity, the positive effect of rural industrial integration on agricultural economic resilience is relatively stronger in areas with higher average annual precipitation, higher per capita GDP, and lower terrain relief. Accordingly, rural industrial integration should be promoted according to local conditions. Land transfer systems and agricultural socialized service systems should be improved to promote appropriately scaled agricultural operations, labor factor allocation should be optimized, and rural financial services and conditions for capital allocation should be improved. Meanwhile, market, production, and fiscal risk management should be strengthened to better leverage the role of rural industrial integration in enhancing agricultural economic resilience.