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政策组合与县域农业经济韧性基于“特优区”与“电商进村”双试点的研究

Policy combinations and county-level agricultural economic resilience: a study based on the “dual-pilot” policy of China Specialized Agricultural Product Advantage Zones and Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration Counties

  • 摘要: 面对自然风险加剧和不确定性因素叠加冲击,增强农业经济韧性是稳定农业经济系统、推动农业高质量发展的重要途径。本文从政策组合视角出发,以“中国特色农产品优势区”和“电子商务进农村综合示范”两项试点政策为准自然实验,基于中国2011—2023年县级面板数据,采用双重机器学习模型评估“双试点”政策对县域农业经济韧性的影响及作用机制。研究发现:1)“双试点”政策能够显著增强县域农业经济韧性,且相较于单一试点政策,政策组合具有更强的促进作用;2)“双试点”政策主要通过农业产业结构升级和农业技术创新两条路径增强县域农业经济韧性;3)“双试点”政策的影响存在异质性,其促进作用在农业发展水平较高、数字化基础设施水平较高以及融资环境较好的县域更为明显。研究结果为优化县域农业政策组合、增强农业经济韧性和稳定农业发展提供了经验证据。

     

    Abstract: In the face of escalating natural risks and compounded uncertainties, enhancing agricultural economic resilience has become an important approach for stabilizing the agricultural economic system and promoting high-quality agricultural development. From the perspective of policy combinations, this study treats the China Specialized Agricultural Product Advantage Zones pilot policy and the Rural E-commerce Comprehensive Demonstration policy as a quasi-natural experiment. Using county-level panel data from China covering the period from 2011 to 2023, this study employs a double machine learning (DML) model to examine the impact of the “dual-pilot” policy on county-level agricultural economic resilience and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that: 1) the “dual-pilot” policy significantly enhances county-level agricultural economic resilience, and compared with a single pilot policy, the policy combination generates a stronger promoting effect; 2) the “dual-pilot” policy mainly enhances county-level agricultural economic resilience through two channels, namely agricultural industrial structure upgrading and agricultural technological innovation; 3) the effects of the “dual-pilot” policy exhibit significant heterogeneity, with stronger promoting effects observed in counties with higher levels of agricultural development, better digital infrastructure, and more favorable financing environments. The findings provide empirical evidence for optimizing county-level agricultural policy combinations, enhancing agricultural economic resilience, and stabilizing agricultural development.

     

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