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化肥减量的“绿色推手”:农机作业服务影响化肥施用强度的机制与证据

Green driver of chemical fertilizer reduction: mechanism and evidence of agricultural machinery services affecting chemical fertilizer application intensity

  • 摘要: 推动化肥施用减量增效是实现质量兴农和绿色兴农的基本要求。农机作业服务的介入,改变了农业要素匹配结构及其配置效率,目前就农机作业服务的化肥减量效应仍有待研究。基于2000—2024年省级面板数据和双向固定效应模型,实证检验农机作业服务对化肥施用强度的影响效应及其作用机制。结果表明:1)农机作业服务能够显著降低化肥施用强度,二者存在倒U型关系,且我国农机作业服务水平已跨过拐点,化肥减量效应将持续增强。2)异质性分析表明,农机作业服务的化肥减量效应存在区域分异,低服务水平阶段呈显著倒U型特征,高服务水平阶段仅呈现减量效应;平原区和发达地区化肥减量效应更易显现,山区和欠发达地区减肥进程相对滞后。3)机制检验发现,服务专业化是化肥减量的重要传导路径,经营规模与数字获取能力强化了农机作业服务的化肥减量效应。为此应强化农机作业服务的绿色导向,引导服务主体由规模扩张转向绿色提质,分区分类引导服务专业化与数字赋能,提升服务主体精准施肥能力,促进化肥投入由粗放型向精准化、效率型转变。

     

    Abstract: Reducing chemical fertilizer use while improving its application efficiency is a fundamental requirement for achieving high-quality and green agricultural development. The provision of agricultural machinery services has transformed the allocation and utilization efficiency of agricultural production factors. However, the extent to which these services reduce chemical fertilizer use remains insufficiently understood. Based on a provincial panel data from 2000 to 2024, this study employs a two-way fixed-effects model to empirically examine the impact of agricultural machinery services on chemical fertilizer application intensity and the underlying mechanisms. Results show that: 1) agricultural machinery services significantly reduce chemical fertilizer application intensity, and the relationship between the two is inverted U-shaped. China’s overall level of agricultural machinery service development has surpassed the turning point, indicating that the fertilizer-reducing effect is likely to continue strengthening; 2) heterogeneity analysis indicates that regional variation exists in the chemical fertilizer reduction effect of agricultural machinery services: the low service level stage showed a significant inverted U-shaped feature, and the reduction effect was more obvious in the high service level stage. The reduction effect is more pronounced in plains and economically developed regions but remains relatively limited in mountainous and less-developed areas; and 3) mechanism analysis shows that the specialization of agricultural machinery serves is a key transmission channel for reducing fertilizer use, while the scale of agricultural operations and digital accessibility strengthen the fertilizer-reducing effect. Accordingly, the green orientation of agricultural machinery services should be strengthened by encouraging service providers to shift their focus from scale expansion to environmentally sustainable practices, adopting differentiated measures to promote service specialization and digital empowerment, improving service providers’ precision-fertilization capabilities, and transforming fertilizer application from extensive use toward more precise and efficient practices.

     

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