Abstract: Amid the deepening global digital transformation, rural digitalization is widely regarded as a key driver of the green and low-carbon transition in agriculture. Based on a provincial panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (excluding Xizang, Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2011 to 2023, this study employs a two-way fixed effect model, a mediation effect model and a threshold model to identify the overall effect, transmission mechanism and phased characteristics of rural digitalization on agricultural green and low-carbon transition. The results show that: 1) the overall level of China’s agricultural green and low-carbon transition has exhibited a steady upward trend, accompanied by prominent regional disparities, with major grain-producing areas demonstrating notable advantages in agricultural transformation; 2) benchmark regression results reveal that rural digitalization has a significant positive impact on agricultural green and low-carbon transition, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness tests and endogeneity treatments; 3) mechanism analysis indicates that agricultural socialized services act as a vital transmission channel for rural digitalization to affect agricultural green and low-carbon transition, and to a certain extent, determine whether digital momentum can be effectively converted into the efficiency of agricultural green and low-carbon transition; and 4) further threshold effect analysis suggests that once the development of agricultural socialized services surpasses a specific threshold, the promotion effect of rural digitalization increases sharply, exhibiting a nonlinear shift from “weak transformation” to “strong transformation”. Based on the above findings, this paper suggests that efforts should focus on accelerating the development of new digital infrastructure, optimizing the supply of agricultural socialized services, and adopting differentiated operational strategies to effectively advance the green and low-carbon transition in agriculture and promote the high-quality development of agriculture and rural areas.