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数字乡村建设、乡村农业新业态培育与县域农业碳排放

Digital rural construction, cultivation of new forms of rural agriculture, and carbon emissions in county-level agriculture

  • 摘要: 数字乡村建设是推动乡村振兴、促进城乡融合发展以及实现“双碳”目标的重要政策抓手,在推动农业绿色转型与低碳发展的过程中发挥着关键作用。基于2007—2024年中国县域平衡面板数据,本文构建渐进双重差分模型,实证检验数字乡村建设对县域农业碳排放的影响及其作用机制。研究结果表明:1)数字乡村建设能够显著降低县域农业碳排放,该结论在一系列稳健性与内生性检验后依然成立;2)机制分析发现,数字乡村建设通过促进乡村农业新业态培育,有效发挥减排效应;3)拓展性分析表明,其减排作用在行政边界层面呈现出“突破市级边界、受限于省级边界”的特征,同时兼具一定的粮食产量保障效应;4)异质性分析显示,该影响在粮食主产区、农业机械化水平较低以及耕地资源禀赋较弱的县域更为显著。基于此,应进一步发挥数字乡村建设的减排潜力,因地制宜推进县域农业绿色低碳转型。

     

    Abstract: Digital rural construction serves as a crucial policy instrument for advancing rural revitalization, facilitating integrated urban-rural development, and achieving the dual carbon goals. It plays a pivotal role in promoting the green transformation and low-carbon development of agriculture. Based on balanced panel data from Chinese counties spanning 2007 to 2024, this paper constructs a staggered difference-in-differences model to empirically examine the impact of digital rural construction on county-level agricultural carbon emissions and its underlying mechanisms. The results indicate that: first, digital rural construction significantly reduces county-level agricultural carbon emissions, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of reliability and endogeneity tests; second, mechanism analysis reveals that digital rural construction exerts an emission reduction effect by fostering new forms of rural agriculture; third, extended analysis demonstrates that the emission reduction effect tends to break through municipal boundaries while remaining constrained by provincial boundaries, alongside a positive effect on ensuring grain production; fourth, heterogeneity analysis shows that this impact is more pronounced in major grain-producing areas, regions with lower levels of agricultural mechanization, and counties with weaker endowments of arable land resources. Based on these findings, it is essential to further harness the emission reduction potential of digital rural construction and promote the green and low-carbon transformation of agriculture at the county level in a manner tailored to local conditions.

     

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