Abstract:
Enhancing the quality of urban-rural integration is an intrinsic requirement for advancing comprehensive rural revitalization and achieving Chinese modernization. Based on a three-dimensional framework of factor connectivity, equivalent development, and symbiotic prosperity, this study constructs an evaluation index system. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2023, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Xizang, it applies the
β convergence model, the superposition method of the NICH index and the Hurst index, as well as the obstacle degree model and the geographic detector, to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution patterns, convergence characteristics, future development trends, and the constraint mechanisms and driving forces of urban-rural integration quality. The results show that: 1) During the study period, the quality of urban-rural integration in China exhibited a steady upward trend and significant convergence characteristics, with a regional evolution pattern characterized by the East leading, the Central region catching up, and the West lagging behind. 2) The quality of urban-rural integration shows significant spatial imbalance, presenting an overall pattern of higher levels in the east than in the west and higher levels in the south than in the north, with a gradient increase from west to east and a clustering tendency in the eastern regions. 3) In the future, the overall quality of urban-rural integration is expected to maintain an upward trend. The western region demonstrates strong growth momentum, and regional disparities are likely to further converge. However, the risk of north-south divergence remains, and provinces such as Qinghai, Guangxi, and Liaoning face potential downward pressure. 4) The quality of urban-rural integration is jointly driven by internal constraints and external forces. Among these, insufficient human capital and inadequate connectivity in transportation and network infrastructure constitute the core obstacle factors, while research investment, government intervention, and the synergistic coupling of multiple factors are the key driving forces shaping the spatial evolution of urban-rural integration quality.