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谁在种地:老人离农对农地退出的影响

Who is farming? The impact of the elderly leaving agriculture on farmland exit

  • 摘要: 回答“谁来养活中国”的关键在于厘清“谁在种地”。本文利用中国流动人口动态监测数据,研究老人离农对农地退出、退出方式及流转对象的影响。结果显示:1)老人离农能够显著提高农地退出的概率,外出老人每增加1人,农地退出的概率约提高8.5%;2)家庭成员离农对农地退出的影响存在明显的代际差异,1960年之前出生的成员外出对农地退出的促进概率是1980年及之后出生成员的4.59倍;3)区分不同农地退出方式发现,相对于自我经营,老人外出能够同时显著提高农地转出和农地撂荒的概率,但相对于农地流转,农地撂荒的发生概率更高;4)区分不同流转对象发现,相对于亲友,老人外出并不能显著提高农地流转给其他主体的概率。研究表明,在农业劳动力代际转换的过程中,老一代农民仍是务农的主体,应持续培养新型经营主体,作为小农的有效补充,以应对农业人口老龄化带来的冲击。

     

    Abstract: The key to answering “Who will feed China” lies in identifying “Who is farming the land”. This paper uses data from the China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) to study the impact of the elderly leaving agriculture on land exit, exit modes, and transferees. The results show that: 1) the exit of the elderly from agriculture significantly increases the likelihood that farming households will withdraw from agricultural land. For every additional elderly person leaving agriculture, the probability of land exit rises by about 8.5%. 2) The impact of family members’ migration on land exit shows distinct intergenerational differences. Specifically, the probability of land exit associated with the migration of family members born before 1960 is 4.59 times that of those born in or after 1980. 3) Distinguishing between different modes of land exit, it is found that the exit of the elderly significantly increases both land transfer and land fallowing. However, the likelihood of agricultural land being left fallow is greater than that of being transferred. 4) Distinguishing between different transferees, it is found that compared with relatives and friends, the exit of the elderly does not significantly increase the probability of transferring land to other transferees. This study shows that in the process of the intergenerational transition of the rural population, the older generation of farmers remains the main agricultural labor force. Therefore, it is necessary to continue cultivating new types of business entities as an effective supplement to small farmers in order to address the challenges posed by the aging agricultural population.

     

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